578
FXUS63 KMPX 111146
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon & evening - the
  strongest could contain hail & gusty winds.

- Next chance for widespread rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The thunderstorm complex over Iowa continues to track due-easterly
along Interstate 80, meaning we`ll continue to have a quiet
night with just patchy areas of fog through sunrise as the only
weather issue. A cold front will slowly move east across
Minnesota through this afternoon & evening, although the upper
level forcing required to initiate scattered showers &
thunderstorms along this front doesn`t really arrive until this
evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance doesn`t have
thunderstorms developing across the eastern dakotas & western
Wisconsin late this afternoon, & slowly spreading into eastern
Minnesota through the night before dissipating over western
Wisconsin Saturday morning. An ok environment for strong to
severe storms will accompany the early storms late this
afternoon across western Minnesota, but weak deep shear means
that any storms strong enough to produce hail or gusty winds
will likely be sporadic & brief.

Saturday looks to be a great day temperature-wise, with cooler
temperatures in the 70s & drier dewpoints behind the cold front,
but northwest flow aloft will advect another round of Canadian
wildfire smoke into the region. Hazardous air quality looks to
be mainly limited to northern Minnesota where the smoke
concentration will be greatest, but expect murky skies to stick
around through the weekend. Warm & muggy weather returns Sunday
& continues into Tuesday with afternoon highs around 90
degrees.

Once today`s front is through the area, the forecast looks dry
with high pressure generally influencing the Upper Midwest
through Monday. The next chance for widespread rain looks to
come Tuesday into Wednesday with ensemble guidance suggesting a
low developing along the US-Canada border & tracking over the
area. Ensemble guidance has the heaviest precipitation across
northern & central Minnesota & Wisconsin, and shows at least
medium (40-60%) chances for widespread rainfall amounts of at
least one inch. Temperatures will be much cooler midweek as
well given the likelihood of widespread precipitation & cloud
cover. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for temperatures
10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Some low clouds and fog have developed early this morning,
leading to IFR/LIFR conditions at most terminals. This should
improve over the next hour or two, leaving us with VFR cig/vis
the remainder of the day. The exception to this will be if some
-TSRA associated with a cold front manage to develop. Confidence
 is low on the timing/duration of these storms if they do
 develop, but overall the trend seems to be towards a drier
 afternoon/evening. Winds will be light and become northwesterly
 behind the cold front. Another round of early morning fog may
 develop by the end of the period.

KMSP...The low clouds and fog have arrived at KMSP just prior to
the TAF issuance. These MVFR/IFR conditions are not expected to
last long. Since the trend still seems to be toward less
widespread showers and storms, tightened up the PROB30 window.
Light southeast winds will become southerly to northwesterly
overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dye