911
FXUS63 KMPX 070355
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Trending drier through next week with above-normal
  temperatures late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Widespread stratocumulus is in place over the region with cold
cyclonic flow aloft, along with a few diurnally-driven showers
across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. This activity will
continue through sunset with only a few hundredths of an inch
of rain expected with any showers. Breezy northwest winds with
gusts up to 40 mph will also continue through sunset as a tight
pressure gradient remains over the region. The clouds will clear
out & winds will weaken after sunset with mostly clear weather
continuing through Friday. Daytime temperatures Friday will be
warmer in the mid to upper 70s, & drier air in place will allow
for RH values to approach 25-30 percent across western
Minnesota, although weaker winds & moist antecedent conditions
will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

A weak shortwave embedded within the fast northwest flow aloft
is forecast to pass over the region Friday night, with most
models generating widespread showers Friday night through
Saturday morning and generally rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.25".
Instability is lacking with most of the precip coming overnight
& during the early morning, but few rumbles of thunder can`t be
ruled out. After the rain moves out of the area Saturday
morning, pleasant weather is in store for the rest of the
weekend with plenty of sunshine, daytime temperatures in the
upper 60s to mid 70s, & northwest winds around 10-20 mph.

The trend towards drier weather generally continues through
next week as ridging aloft begins to build over the central
CONUS. The one outlier may be Tuesday into Wednesday, where
ensemble guidance shows a shortwave briefly suppressing the
building ridging and bringing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the area. Temperatures will be warming
through the week as heights rise over the region, and a
building heat dome over the southwest begins to extend up into
the central and northern plains. Highs will be in the mid 70s
to low 80s to start the week, but we could see some areas reach
the 90s later in the week and especially over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Clearing skies continues late this evening. Some gusts of 20-25
kts could return across eastern MN and WI late Friday morning,
otherwise no significant concerns until Friday night when
showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms return.

KMSP...Light winds tonight, but 20-25kt gusts are expected to
pick up again from mid morning to mid afternoon Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff