Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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070 FXUS63 KMPX 271937 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 237 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are producing small hail and frequent lightning this afternoon across central and southern MN. Brief funnel clouds have been reported at times as well. - Things become fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures and the next chance for widespread rain arriving near the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A broken line of thunderstorms has tracked through portions of south- central Minnesota already this afternoon, resulting in multiple reports of half-inch or smaller hail. A broader area of scattered showers/storms encompasses much of central and southern Minnesota behind the aforementioned line. Hail and lightning with these cells are much more sporadic and limited compared to the broken line. This whole smattering of storms will continue to move southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the exiting surface low pressure system. Brief funnel clouds, and a weak landspout or two, are possible with these storms, especially along the boundary associated with the occluded low. SPC`s mesoscale analysis page highlights increasing values of the non-supercell tornado parameter, pushing above 6 for areas near the MN/SoDak/NoDak border. Any severe potential should diminish early this evening, and scattered showers/storms will gradually taper off into tonight. A secondary, and more disorganized shortwave will eject down over the Great Lakes region tomorrow, bringing a chance (30-50%) of rain for areas along and east of I-35. Storm total QPF will be light and while a rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question, anything severe is unlikely. Surface high pressure will move in Wednesday morning, resulting in a a couple of nice days with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures are expected to generally trend upwards for the near future, with persistent highs in the 80s possible by the start of next week. Lows will also be trending up after Tuesday night, with low 60s possible heading into early next week. Nearing the end of this week, a broad upper-level trough pattern will slide eastward from the Pacific NW bringing off- and-on chances for showers/storms through the weekend. Any severe threat looks to stay further west, or is too low for predictability at this time. Long-term models generally show a large positive 500hPa height anomaly building over the western half of the CONUS by early next week, supporting the idea of a general upward trend in temps and a potentially less active period of weather ahead. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Scattered thunderstorms have developed quickly during the last hour or two across MN. They will become more numerous into the mid afternoon with some MVFR conditions and gusty winds accompanying them. TS activity will diminish near sunset. Another chance of showers will arrive late tonight and linger into much of Tuesday across WI. MVFR cigs appear likely tomorrow morning, possibly lingering into the afternoon. KMSP...TS chances increase after 19Z, then prevail through the early evening. They may persist a bit after the current TEMPO indicates and we may need to extend it with later amendments. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts becoming SE. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Borghoff