152
FXUS63 KMPX 150728
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
228 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s return today through
  early next week.

- Rain chances increase from Wednesday through next weekend as a
  more active pattern sets up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The stationary boundary which had helped produced rain showers and
drizzle yesterday morning has drifted off to the north and east.
Broad H300 ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS is in
place which will keep today rather quiet except for a stray
isolated shower. Southerly flow will allow for slightly breezy
conditions between 20-25 mph especially across western MN this
afternoon. Accompanying these winds will be warmer temperatures.
Forecasted highs will rebound into the low to mid 80s which is
at least 5 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday`s highs as H850
thermal ridging infiltrates into the northern plains.

The forecast for the first half of the week features a rinse and
repeat type pattern containing above average highs in the mid 80s
with dry conditions. In regards to "dry conditions", we only have
seen 0.03" of rainfall for the month thus far which brings us to a
monthly deficit just shy of -1.4 inches. Some good news though is we
do have increasing confidence for several chances of rain to return
by mid-week and persist into the weekend. Although we are still too
far out to share details on exact rainfall impacts but latest
ensemble guidance hints at QPF totals up to 1.5" of rainfall though
this weekend. Western MN could potentially exceed two inches which
agrees well with the current slightly above average on the latest
precipitation outlook. Once these systems pass at the end of
this week, cooler temperatures return to the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Maintained VFR conditions at all TAF sites with no additional
precipitation expected. Mid-level ceilings will remain in place
over eastern MN into western WI as satellite imagery shows the
swath of clouds rather slow to move out. No ceilings are
expected by daybreak Sunday morning. Winds will run S to SE
throughout with speeds 10kts or less.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC