398
FXUS63 KMPX 072318
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers likely tonight into Saturday morning.

- Warming trend through mid-week with high temperatures in the
  80s likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... Temperatures have climbed into the
low to mid 70s so far this afternoon. Winds have remained breezy 10-
15 mph range with gusts 25-30 mph. Much  more tolerable versus
yesterday`s winds. Our clear skies will slowly fade under a lay of
mid level cloud cover. Cloud cover will build in from SW to NE and
will set the table for rain showers tonight into Saturday morning.
RH values have dropped into the 30 percent range this afternoon, but
fire weather concerns have been limited due to the recent wet
pattern.  A shortwave trough will move through tonight, providing
support for rain showers across Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Most of us should see showers overnight, but rainfall totals will be
light with values between a few hundredths to a quarter inch on the
high end. CAMs and Ensemble guidance give support to this solution
as well. There has been a downward trend in QPF amounts with this
system in the HRRR and global guidance as low level dry air saps
much of the moisture before it reaches the surface. PWATs aren`t too
impressive either. An thunderstorm or two is possible to our SW, but
12z CAMs didn`t feature anything noteworthy, likely due to the
limited moisture and instability in place. Saturday and Saturday
night will be pleasant after the system exits. Clearing skies will
support high temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Winds will be out
of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. An increasingly rare forecast as
we head into Summer.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... This week ahead will see these
pleasant late Spring-like days fade away as a more Summer-like
pattern builds in aloft. Temperatures start out pleasant with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s before the warmer weather ramps up by
late next week. Ensemble guidance has continued to advertise a
warmer look as an upper level ridge builds east into the central
CONUS. High temperatures in the 80s with a few spots in the 90s
appears likely by Thursday. It`s important to note that model spread
increases to a significant level by this point and what evolves
after is far from certain. ECMWF highlights two windows of
opportunity for potential rain and thunderstorms next week. The
first comes Tuesday with a shortwave system that`ll bring a swath of
moisture into Upper Midwest and likely some thunderstorm potential.
As this potential system exits, our ridge will build into the Upper
Midwest and WAA will ramp up. Temperatures will peak Thursday
afternoon in the 80s, possibly some 90s across SW MN, before a
stronger shortwave moves through Thursday PM into Thursday night.
Temperatures aren`t the only thing that`ll heat up mid-week. An
impressive surge of moisture will settle in with dew points in the
upper 60s and lower 70s likely. This will likely mark the end of the
late-spring weather we`ve enjoyed. PWAT values around 2.0" are
reflected in the ECMWF... very humid airmass coupled with
temperatures in the 80s... Summertime. This system should produce
thunderstorms across the region as a sfc cold front moves across the
state Thursday PM. We`ll have to monitor guidance to see what
exactly shakes out being over a week away though. If you have any
yard work or outdoor activities you`ve been putting off, it may be
beneficial to get to them before the end of next week!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR this evening with mid level clouds increasing. Showers will
move in overnight and will remain light with VFR likely
continuing. As the showers exit early Saturday morning, some
MVFR level clouds could follow for a few hours before clearing.
Light and variable winds tonight will become northwest again
Saturday.

KMSP...Light showers should move in between 06-07Z tonight.
However, VFR conditions are likely throughout the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Borghoff