Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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239 FXUS63 KMPX 150337 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1037 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s return tomorrow through early next week. - Rain chances increase from Wednesday through next weekend as a more active pattern sets up. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Scattered showers and areas of drizzle have become less widespread over the past couple of hours. An occasional heavier shower, especially across eastern portions of the forecast area, will remain possible through early this evening. Further west, plentiful sunshine has allowed temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s. These temperatures will return area wide tomorrow with borderline breezy south winds in the afternoon at 20-25 MPH. There`s a non-zero chance for a couple pop up showers tomorrow, but chances are low enough that they have not been included in the PoP grids for now. We`ll start the work week with more of the same- highs in the mid to upper 80s with breezy southerly winds as a warm front associated with a deepening surface low over the western Dakotas late Monday through Tuesday. With a persistent ridge to our east, this system will have a hard time making much progress westward as we head into the middle of the week. Have introduced 50-60 PoPs for far western Minnesota early Wednesday with 30-50 PoPs overspreading the remainder of the state through the overnight. By the end of the week, widespread showers and some more seasonable temperatures may be on the horizon as the aforementioned ridge finally weakens to our east. Ensembles have had a fairly consistent signal and continue to show the possibility for a prolonged period of rain from early next weekend through the beginning of the following week. Temperatures should also finally settle down to near late September normals in the lower 70s and upper 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Maintained VFR conditions at all TAF sites with no additional precipitation expected. Mid-level ceilings will remain in place over eastern MN into western WI as satellite imagery shows the swath of clouds rather slow to move out. No ceilings are expected by daybreak Sunday morning. Winds will run S to SE throughout with speeds 10kts or less. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...JPC