Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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860 FXUS63 KMQT 080901 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 501 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few stronger storms capable of small hail and gusty winds are possible this afternoon, mainly east-central. - Showery weather and much cooler through the weekend under the influence of low pressure, then warming and drying early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Current radar mosaic is beginning to light up a bit to the west as rain showers enter the area with the next shortwave. These rain showers will continue their eastward propagation into central Upper Michigan through the course of the morning and eventually the eastern third of the forecast area by this afternoon. By this afternoon, a cold front combined with lake breezes could initiate thunderstorm development across the central and east quadrants. With limited instability, storms are not expected to reach severe levels. Nonetheless, some could become strong at times with pea-sized hail and gusty winds with some SBCAPE values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and bulk shear around 30-40 kts. Meanwhile, temperatures today will generally top off in the upper 60s/low 70s with west- northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph by this afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Upper air pattern consists of an elongated trough and several closed lows along most of the Canadian/U.S. border into New England 12z Sat. Upper level troughing slowly moves south through upper Great Lakes Sat and Sat night. Upper high pressure ridging then moves into the area on Mon. Next chance for rain moves into the area on Sat into Sat evening and then another chance for pcpn Sun before it dries out Sun night. Pcpn chances do not look that great and will be mostly hit and miss. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the western U.S. and across the upper Great Lakes with a trough in the northern plains 12z Tue. This trough moves through the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed with more upper level troughing near the area 12z Thu through 12z Fri. Temperatures go from near normal on Tue to above normal Wed through Fri. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Mostly clear skies have returned to UP terminals but the next disturbance is approaching from the west. Cloud coverage increases with overcast VFR cigs expected Saturday morning as the disturbance ripples eastward across the area. Light rain chances accompany the increased cloudiness Saturday morning, but cig/vsby restrictions are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of SAW Saturday afternoon and if storms occur then they may be capable of brief gusty/erratic winds, small hail, and cig/vsby restrictions. Decided on vicinity thunderstorms at this time given low confidence in this outcome. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Winds stay below 20 knots through Sunday morning before increasing to 20 to 25 knots Sun afternoon. The wind then stays again below 20 knots Sunday night through the end of the forecast period as no strong pressure systems are near the area. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...EK MARINE...07