105
FXUS63 KMQT 021903
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
303 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated afternoon showers possible interior eastern Upper MI due
to converging lake breezes.
- A round of showers and storms moves into the far western UP by
  early Monday morning.
- Frequent opportunities for showers and thunderstorms over the next
7 days, with a break expected today and possibly Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures through the first half of the week, then
turning cooler for the last half and next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Skies remain sunny across the area with weak ridging sliding over
the Great Lakes and plenty of dry midlevel air in place. Still, some
agitated cu is firing across the eastern UP, with converging lake
breezes off of Superior and Lake Michigan. Cloud tops remain fairly
low so far, and latest model and NUCAPS profiles still show some
thermal capping aloft. If this can be overcome, though, a few
showers out east cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, temperatures across most of the UP are climbing well into
the 70s, but are a little cooler (mainly 60s) along the shorelines
of the Great Lakes. Dewpoints are dropping into the lower 40s and
even upper 30s in the interior-western UP, but light winds continue
to limit our fire weather concerns.

Meanwhile, RAP analysis shows midlevel troughing digging into the
Plains, with tightening 850mb flow and WAA over MN already touching
off some convection. This feature will continue to swing NE towards
the Great Lakes into tonight while phasing with another wave
currently moving across southern Saskatchewan. Showers finally reach
the far western UP by the early hours of Monday, while a LLJ core
becoming directed over the area potentially lending some divergence.
Some thunder will not be ruled out, but given an unfavorable onset
timing during the pre-dawn hours, would not expect any severe
convection.

Expect an otherwise mild night under increasing clouds. Temperatures
likely won`t fall below the 50 degree mark over most of the UP, save
the far east, where clear skies hold out the longest. There, we may
dip into the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Mostly clear skies this evening give way to rain showers and a few
thunderstorms over the far western U.P. by Monday morning as a cold
front begins pushing into the area. With clouds moving in tonight
over the west half in particular, expect lows over the west half to
be in the 50s to near 60 over the far west. Meanwhile, with less
cloud cover overhead, expect lows to get down to around 50 in the
east. No severe weather is expected Monday as the cloud coverage
will limit CAPE and lapse rates; in addition, bulk shear values look
to generally be less than 30 knots. That being said, it is still
possible that we could see a stronger cell or two that could produce
gusty winds and small hail. With the NAEFS and European ensembles
showing PWATs above 1.25 inches (which is above the 90th percentile
of modeled climatology), we could see some heavy rainfall at times
over the western half of the U.P. Monday. While the heavy rainfall
looks to be very sporadic in nature, there is a chance (30-50%) that
we could see some isolated spots get above 1 inch of liquid before
the sun sets; hopefully, this will alleviate the remaining moderate
drought concerns over in the western U.P.. As the front slowly makes
its way into the central and eventually eastern portions of Upper
Michigan late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, CAMs show
convective activity dwindling as frontogenesis weakens. Therefore,
lighter rainfall amounts are expected across the eastern half of the
U.P. late Monday.

While it looks like some weak high pressure ridging moves over the
area Monday night into Tuesday, model guidance has trended up rain
chances slightly over the past 24 hours. Therefore, the predicted
cloud cover has increased a little since yesterday morning, with
partly to mostly cloudy skies now expected across the area as a weak
shortwave is expected to precede a second cold front approaching
from the Northern Plains. The shortwave could bring some light rain
showers and a couple of thunderstorms across the area early Tuesday,
particularly over the south central and east where the chances are
highest (15-25%). Warm air advection moving over the area Tuesday
will allow for high temperatures to get well above normal, with
spots in the interior west and possibly east getting above 80
degrees. Given the moisture from the Gulf and somewhat cloudy skies
overhead, we could see dewpoints get into the mid to upper 60s in a
few places, mainly over the interior west (a.k.a. it may feel a bit
muggy). With the cold front looking to arrive during mainly the
overnight hours, severe thunderstorms aren`t expected. However, with
the exact timing of the front`s arrival not pinned down quite yet,
some model guidance showing MUCAPE over 1000+ J/kg during the early
evening hours (and 100s+ J/kg in the overnight hours), and bulk
shear values in the 30 to 40 knot range, severe storms cannot be
completely ruled out, even though the chance right now is very small
(<2%); the location with the best chance for severe weather late
Tuesday is currently the far west. The cold front continues through
the U.P. through Wednesday, as the rainfall marches eastward with
the front. As the showers and storms associated with the front are
exiting the eastern U.P. Wednesday afternoon, a secondary shortwave
moving into the western U.P. behind the front could bring additional
showers and thunderstorms back across the area behind it.

The above normal temperatures we`ve been enjoying look to come to an
end for the last half of the week as a low pressure settles over
northern Ontario and sends cold air advection and multiple weak
shortwaves across our area from late Wednesday through this next
weekend. As this occurs, expect highs to drop into the 60s and for
lows to get into the 40s, which is below normal for this time of
year. In addition, light rainfall chances are expected from Thursday
onwards due to the shortwaves rotating over our area; while we may
see a rumble of thunder here or there during peak heating hours,
given the cooler temperatures, thunderstorm activity should be less
common.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR prevails at all terminals the rest of today into tonight with a
ridge over the area. An approaching disturbance tonight may spread
some -shra into IWD and CMX late tonight, but there is higher
confidence in shower activity after 12Z Monday with ceilings
lowering to MVFR. VFR holds on at SAW into tomorrow morning. Ahead
of the disturbance, low-level jet will reach western Upper MI late
tonight, resulting in LLWS at IWD/CMX. Otherwise, expect winds to
remain below 10 knots, of variable direction today due to lake
breezes but turning over to the SSE into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue today into tonight as weak
surface high pressure continues over Lake Superior. However, as a
cold front moves through late tonight into Monday, southerly winds
look to gust up to 20 to 25 knots Monday, particularly over the
central lake and possibly near the south shoreline (especially near
the tip of the Keweenaw, where higher wind gusts could be seen).
Once the cold front moves through, the winds die down to 20 knots or
less yet again by Monday evening as weak high pressure ridging
sprints through the region. The light winds continue until a cold
front from the Northern Plains passes west to east across the lake
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Behind the front, expect southwest
winds to gust up to 20 to 25 knots over the western half of the lake
on Wednesday as a secondary shortwave quickly moves through the
region. As a parent low sets up shop in northern Ontario for the
latter half of the week, expect cold air advection and multiple
shortwave lows rotating around the parent low to bring higher west
to northwest winds across Lake Superior throughout the rest of the
work week and into this next weekend; we could see westerly gusts up
to 30 knots as soon as Thursday.

As for other marine hazards, the fog over Lake Superior looks to
burn off a few hours after the sunrise this morning as the sun
warms the air. A few thunderstorms could be seen over the lake
tonight through Monday night from west to east as the first cold
front pushes through. The second cold front pushing through
looks to bring a few more thunderstorms across the lake from
west to east from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. No severe
weather is expected at this time, although there is a very low
chance (<2%) that we could see some severe weather over the far
western lake Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP