607
FXUS63 KMQT 240846
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
446 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Other than a low chance (15-30%) of showers this afternoon
  through tonight in eastern Upper Michigan, dry weather is
  expected this week into the weekend.

- Temperatures trend to well above normal by late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Upper Michigan remains under the influence of high pressure early
this morning per latest surface/RAP analysis.  But, weak WAA in the
return flow ahead of the next disturbance currently over the
Dakotas/MN has kept temperatures a tad warmer than yesterday
morning.  Currently, ground-based obs across the area are generally
reporting mid to upper 40s with the usual cold spots coming in
around 40, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday morning`s obs at this
time. And, any fog formation so far has remained concentrated
over the Land O` Lakes area.

For the remainder of today, expect pleasant weather with plenty
of sunshine and high temperatures warming into the upper 60s in
the southerly flow. The exception could be a few rain showers
sneaking into the far eastern portions of the area late in the
day as a surface low tracks northeast across Illinois. But, the
best dynamics with this disturbance should stay south and east
of Upper Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Starting tonight, mid level troughing will broadly extend from
Hudson Bay down to the Lower Mississippi Valley with strong ridging
over the Rockies. At the sfc, a ~1007mb low will be positioned over
Lower MI. As the ridge shifts east tonight and Wednesday, the trough
directly over the Great Lakes shifts east and the lower trough forms
a closed low forms over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The sfc low
follows an embedded shortwave, taking a northeast track through
Lower MI and over Lake Huron. As a result, some light showers are
possible east of Munising and Fairport tonight. Outside the mostly
cloudy skies in the far east, partly cloudy skies are likely
overnight where dry weather persists; patchy fog may develop late
where there is better clearing. Lows settle into the 40s to low 50s,
warmer in the east where there is more cloud cover.

Dry weather returns to the CWA by Wednesday morning as the trough
pushes east through northern Ontario and ridging progresses eastward
over the Northern Plains. Ridging becomes centered over the Great
Lakes by Friday as the closed low continues spinning over the south;
the tropical system begins to interact with the closed low Thursday
night/Friday. Although there is still plenty of uncertainty with
those two features to the south over the weekend, high pressure and
ridging likely will keep us dry the rest of the week and much of the
weekend too. Thus, opted to remove all NBM PoPs from the CWA until
Sunday afternoon, leaving the rest in for model uncertainty. Some
high level clouds may advect north from the tropical system over the
weekend. Further out, there is some agreement in a mid level trough
moving east along international border early next week. This would
send a low pressure system northeast off the northern Rockies Sunday
night/Monday to northern Ontario on Tuesday, bringing the next best
shot at showers.

Otherwise, some additional fog development is possible Wednesday
night/Thursday morning across the UP. Model soundings show a
stronger inversion with low level moisture and winds become calm
under mostly clear skies. Temps trend to well above normal again by
the latter part of the week (highs in the 70s and lows in the mid
40s to mid 50s). A few spots hitting 80 can`t be ruled out Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions for the duration of the TAF period with ridging over
the region. Midlevel cloud cover fills in late tonight into Tuesday
morning as a shortwave trough moves through the Lower Midwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Southeast winds gradually tapper off this morning before backing
east in the afternoon. A few gusts around 20 kts are possible over
the east half of the lake early this morning. Although a low
pressure system tracks through Lower MI today and northeast across
Lake Huron tonight, winds are expected to remain below 20 kts as
they become westerly by Wednesday. From there, high pressure looks
to dominate the forecast keeping winds at or below 20 kts the
remainder weekend; unusually benign weather for this time of year.
The next shot for winds to increase above 20 kts holds off until
early next week when a low pressure system tracks to the north of
the Great Lakes.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Jablonski