780
FXUS63 KMQT 021849
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
249 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-After a brief dry break for the late afternoon and early evening,
additional showers move back in tonight with around a 20% chance for
thunder early on.

- Widespread southerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph (potentially up to
40mph in the downsloping areas near Superior) continue this
afternoon, falling back into the evening.

- Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior
western Upper Michigan on Independence Day. Rain/isolated thunder
spreads over the region Thursday night and Friday.

- While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances
continue this weekend...especially Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Water vapor and RAP analysis continue to highlight an upper trough
and surface low over Manitoba, and a couple of shortwaves ahead of
this. The first, currently moving out of the Great Lakes, touched
off our initial round of rain showers that is slowly tapering off
across the eastern UP this afternoon. After a brief dry break, the
next shortwave ejecting out of the Plains will bring in our next
round of light showers after 00Z. Though some thunder is possible,
confidence is low with rather limited instability (a few hundred
j/kg of MUCAPE by the evening and capped soundings).

Meanwhile, with plenty of lower cloud cover over the area,
temperatures are on the cool side with most of hte area only peaking
in the lower 60s. However, some spots in the western UP are
struggling even to get out of the 50s. Southerly winds remain gusty,
especially across the downsloping areas long Lake Superior, with a
strong 40-50KT LLJ directed over the area. Gusts up to 20-30mph are
common area-wide, but where downsloping becomes a factor, stronger
gusts in excess of 35mph and even up to 40mph are not out of the
question. Winds fall back into the evening while the jet shifts
eastward out of the area.

As the next shortwave moves in, rain showers become most likely
across the eastern half of the UP with areas west of M-95 possibly
staying dry the rest of the night. Another quarter to half an inch
of rain is possible across the eastern UP. Otherwise, temperatures
shouldn`t fall back too much with rain and lingering low cloud
cover. Expect lows to range in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Any lingering precipitation will end pretty quickly in the east
Wednesday morning as slightly drier air pushes in from the west.
There may be just enough leftover instability for an isolated shra
to pop up during the afternoon across the interior but most areas
will remain dry with a pleasant early summer day. Westerly winds
will be gusty, 25-30 mph, across the higher terrain of the
Keweenaw...diminishing late in the day.

Surface ridging builds in for Wednesday night through Independence
Day. Once again an isolated shra/tsra can be ruled out in the
interior west during the afternoon/early evening Thursday but most
will remain dry with typical early summer high temperatures in the
mid 70s to around 80.

Rain and isolated thunders chances increase late Thursday night
through much of Friday, especially for the south half of the U.P. as
shortwave and surface low track eastward through the lower Lakes.
Most of the rain will be east of the U.P. for any Friday night
fireworks displays.

Ridging builds back in for Saturday with seasonable temperatures and
nothing more than an isolated diurnal shra/tsra inland from Lake
Superior. The next shortwave and weak surface front arrive on Sunday
with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms...it doesn`t look
like a washout but definitely the wetter of the weekend days. One
more shortwave passes Monday with at least small chance for
shra/tsra activity before a trend towards drier and seasonable
summer weather for Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A brief dry period is expected the rest of the afternoon as rain
showers work east of SAW, but plenty of lower cloud cover remains
over the area. MVFR prevails at IWD and SAW, but brief drops to IFR
are not out of the question at times as well. Meanwhile, CMX should
continue to see mainly IFR ceilings through the rest of the day.
Overnight, another round of showers moves through, mainly impacting
SAW. There, expect IFR ceilings to settle in while IWD and CMX come
in mainly at MVFR. A slow improvement to VFR is expected during the
early morning hours of Wednesday as drier air works in and skies
begin to clear out. Otherwise, southerly winds remain elevated this
afternoon with 30kt gusts common, but winds fall back this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Gusty south winds up to 30 kts will diminish over the eastern Lake
this evening. Expect another round of lighter rain over the southern
part of the Lake tonight which could produce patchy fog. On
Wednesday...post frontal southwesterly winds should be able to climb
to 25-30kts across the western half of Lake Superior, mainly between
the Keweenaw and Isle Royale by Wednesday afternoon. Winds lighten
Wednesday evening, and then are expected to be at or below 20kts
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...MZ