Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
149 FXUS64 KMRX 200717 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 317 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Key Messages: 1. Some fog around to start the period, especially near rivers and lakes. 2. Dry for the period, with high temperatures today around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Discussion: We will remain on the eastern side of the upper ridge that is centered to our southwest for the short term period. We will start with some patches/areas of fog early this morning especially in river valleys and near lakes, then this will dissipate followed by plenty of sunshine today with afternoon high temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Tonight will continue to be dry with low temperatures a bit above normal. Some patchy fog may form again late, although right now it looks likely to have less coverage than this early this morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Key Messages: 1. Continued well above normal temperatures (5 to 10F) through the middle of next week. 2. Higher uncertainty for next week, but expect moderating temperatures with gradual increase in rain chances. Discussion: Strong upper level ridge across the southern Plains will encourage our warm and dry weather to persist through the weekend. A frontal system to our north over the Midwest will bring low chances of light showers Monday into Tuesday, primarily over the northern half of the region. By midweek a more significant system is likely to push through somewhere in the Eastern US, though whether or not we derive greatest benefit is still uncertain. The bulk of the ensemble guidance is closer to the Euro solution that grants us a taste of fall behind a strong cold front but lacks decent accompanying precipitation (odds of 1 inch of rain in the consensus is 0 to 20 percent). Meanwhile in the outlier camp, the 00z runs of the GFS and CMC bring the upper trough further south, drawing more significant moisture northwards and thus heavier rainfall, with different scenarios of an inch (or more) of rainfall. Either scenario will bring us cooler weather, whether it`s by rain and clouds or stronger cold front passage. For now, PoPs remain fairly limited given the consensus ensemble view, but a forecaster can hope for the outlier wet solutions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Fog development tonight is the main concern, and while the details are uncertain there is a very high probability of significant fog development at TRI in the next few hours. Will continue to include dense fog there with 1/4SM vsby toward sunrise. Confidence lower at TYS, but will continue to include MVFR vsby in fog there. Other than the late night/early morning fog at TRI and TYS, will have a VFR forecast for the period all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 66 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 64 91 65 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 63 90 65 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 60 85 61 / 10 10 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....Wellington AVIATION...