744
FXUS64 KMRX 201914
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
314 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

If you love today then you will like tomorrow. Daytime temps will
be about the same, maybe slightly more humid. Patchy morning fog
for the northeast third, and during the afternoon there may be
isolated showers over VA and the northern mountains. Otherwise,
lots of similarities with today because our controlling ridge of
high pressure will remain in place, allowing only the weakest
shortwave on its northern perimeter to bring those isolated
showers tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Messages:

1. Hot and mostly dry through the weekend. Max temps around 10
degrees above normal

2. Above normal temperatures remain through Tuesday, but with
increasing chances of precipitation.

Mostly dry conditions in place through Sunday as we will be under
the influence of high pressure just to our south. Temperatures will
be around 10 degrees above normal on Sunday, with Heat Indices in
the mid to upper 90s across the central and southern TN Valley.

By Monday the ridge begins to flatten as a shortwave moves into the
Missouri River Valley. Due to decreasing heights, and weak
divergence from the upper jet, POPs will increase on Monday. POPs
will be diurnally driven. On Tuesday, the ridge axis shifts to our
east as the aforementioned shortwave swings up into the Great Lakes.
A slightly stronger 300mb jet is overhead on Tuesday, resulting in
slightly higher POPs than Monday.

Wednesday and beyond, the forecast becomes much more uncertain.
Models generally show a long wave trough diving down into the
central U.S. and moving east. However, the evolution and placement of
this feature is in high disagreement. Will leave slight chance and
chance NBM POPs alone as of now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR to prevail beneath high pressure. Maybe brief BR at TRI around
12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  65  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  64  91  66 /  10   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  61  86  62 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GC
AVIATION...GC