353
FXUS64 KMRX 240643
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
243 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Key Messages:

1. Some showers linger, mainly over the mountains, through shortly
after daybreak. Otherwise, dry conditions expected.

2. Cooler and less humid conditions expected today, with a nice
cooldown tonight as lows drop into the 60s.

Discussion:

A couple of batches of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue to make their way through the forecast area
early this morning, one moving through our NC counties and another
north of the Morristown area in TN and VA. Expect all of this to
clear to the east by daybreak or shortly thereafter as the shortwave
trough driving all of this shifts east of the Appalachian chain by
15z. Afterwards, expect dry conditions for the CWA throughout the
remainder of the short term period as upper ridging attempts to
build in from the west.

The cold front associated with the trough mentioned above, is not
exactly racing southeast. It looks to be situated from roughly Wise
Virginia
southwest through Crossville or thereabouts early this morning and
should push through the entire CWA by mid morning or so. Expect
slightly cooler temperatures as a result, and a notable decrease in
the humidity levels today as a result. The southern TN valley should
still be quite warm though, with low to mid 90s forecast for the
Chattanooga area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Key Messages:

1. Rain chances arrive on Wednesday through Wednesday night with a
weak frontal passage. Another front may bring showers and storms
by the weekend.

2. Above normal temperatures continue through the period with
slightly cooler temperatures expected Thursday before heating right
back up again.

Discussion:

Shortwave ridging will occur on Tuesday with  a stronger shortwave
digging into Missouri/Oklahoma/Arkansas. This shortwave trough and
associated frontal boundary will progress slowly eastward Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This frontal passage by Wednesday night will
be the best chance to get some wetting rain across the majority of
our forecast area. PW values of 1.25" to 1.40" will be common and
this falls in line with climatology for this time of year. Thus,
heavy rainfall is not anticipated and QPF forecasts suggest anywhere
from 0.25"-0.75" possible by Thursday morning.

Cooler temperatures expected on Thursday post front and rain.
Unfortunately short-lived because the heat turns up again by Friday
into the weekend. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will
possible Friday and Saturday. The better rain chances for the
weekend appear again on Sunday afternoon/evening. A weakness in the
ridge and weak frontal boundary approaches the area again. We could
definitely use the rainfall!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Convection is mostly clear of the area as of 0530z, with a few
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA yet to move east through areas north of KTYS.
They`re sparse enough that excluding them from the KTRI TAF seems
the correct decision. Some guidance develops some MVFR flight
categories through daybreak or so at KTRI and KTYS. Seems more
plausible at KTYS where heavier rains were seen, but not confident
enough in it occurring at either site to include at this time.
KTYS does have FEW003 on the latest ob so will watch it closely
and amend if necessary. Otherwise, high pressure building in from
the northwest will produce some gusty northerly winds at KCHA this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  68  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  64  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       89  64  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  59  89  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...CD