149
FXUS64 KMRX 200717
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
317 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Messages:

1. Some fog around to start the period, especially near rivers and
lakes.

2.  Dry for the period, with high temperatures today around 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

Discussion:

We will remain on the eastern side of the upper ridge that is
centered to our southwest for the short term period.  We will start
with some patches/areas of fog early this morning especially in
river valleys and near lakes, then this will dissipate followed by
plenty of sunshine today with afternoon high temperatures around 5
to 10 degrees above seasonal normals.

Tonight will continue to be dry with low temperatures a bit above
normal. Some patchy fog may form again late, although right now it
looks likely to have less coverage than this early this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued well above normal temperatures (5 to 10F) through the
middle of next week.

2. Higher uncertainty for next week, but expect moderating
temperatures with gradual increase in rain chances.

Discussion:

Strong upper level ridge across the southern Plains will encourage
our warm and dry weather to persist through the weekend. A frontal
system to our north over the Midwest will bring low chances of light
showers Monday into Tuesday, primarily over the northern half of the
region. By midweek a more significant system is likely to push
through somewhere in the Eastern US, though whether or not we derive
greatest benefit is still uncertain. The bulk of the ensemble
guidance is closer to the Euro solution that grants us a taste of
fall behind a strong cold front but lacks decent accompanying
precipitation (odds of 1 inch of rain in the consensus is 0 to 20
percent). Meanwhile in the outlier camp, the 00z runs of the GFS and
CMC bring the upper trough further south, drawing more significant
moisture northwards and thus heavier rainfall, with different
scenarios of an inch (or more) of rainfall. Either scenario will
bring us cooler weather, whether it`s by rain and clouds or stronger
cold front passage. For now, PoPs remain fairly limited given the
consensus ensemble view, but a forecaster can hope for the outlier
wet solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Fog development tonight is the main concern, and while the details
are uncertain there is a very high probability of significant fog
development at TRI in the next few hours. Will continue to
include dense fog there with 1/4SM vsby toward sunrise.
Confidence lower at TYS, but will continue to include MVFR vsby in
fog there. Other than the late night/early morning fog at TRI and
TYS, will have a VFR forecast for the period all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  66  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  64  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  63  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  60  85  61 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Wellington
AVIATION...