174
FXUS65 KMSO 180653
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1253 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

.UPDATE...No updates to the discussion necessary overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Given the lighter winds, dry air, and partial
clearing overnight, lows will drop into the low to mid 30s in
lower western Montana and higher central Idaho valleys this
morning. Today will be a fairly nice day overall under zonal
flow. Valley high temperatures will return to seasonable levels
(mid/upper 60s) along with afternoon breezes and a few showers
returning by late afternoon.

Upper level troughing settles in Sunday accompanied by cooler
temperatures and scattered showers. Snow levels drop to around
5000 feet but no impact is anticipated for road surfaces. There is
a 30-50% probability of at least 0.25 inch of precipitation from
the Flathead Valley eastward into the Glacier region. Overall,
precipitation amounts will be light for the rest of the Northern
Rockies.

As the trough lingers, scattered instability showers pop up on
Monday afternoon. Frost will continue to be a concern in valleys early
next week but overnight temperatures will be very dependent on
cloud cover.

By next Wednesday-Friday (22nd-24th), about 80% of ensemble
clusters support a pattern favorable for closed low development
across the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies. Closed lows often
bring widespread precipitation to the Northern Rockies this time
of year, stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly benign weather will persist today and tonight.
Breezy afternoon winds will once again occur at most terminals
today after about 18/1800Z, with localized gusts to 25-30 knots
through 19/0300Z or shortly thereafter. Showers will occur and
impact KGPI in the form of gusty outflow winds and graupel/rain
showers after 18/1800.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$