082
FXUS65 KMSO 201851
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1251 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.DISCUSSION...Westerly flow will continue over the region for the
next several days with relatively mild weather. Weak troughs and
ridges will move through, causing small changes in afternoon
cloud cover and mountain showers from day to day. Today and
tomorrow will be some of those days with a weak trough causing
some more afternoon cloud cover and isolated showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the mountains.

For this weekend, a weak ridge will remain in place causing
mostly sunny and warm conditions. Expect temperatures 10-15
degrees above average for this weekend.

The next weak trough for the beginning of next week has recently
trended farther north in models, and is now looking like a wind
impact for western Montana with winds 15-20 mph from the west.

The next significant trough to move into the northern Rockies
looks like it will be late next week. There is considerable
difference in the timing in the ensembles which vary in timing
between next Thursday and next Saturday, but all the models
consistently show a significant low pressure system coming late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...A trough remains over the region, but it`s losing the
battle with a ridge coming up from the U.S. Southwest. As a
result of that and quite a lot of dry air at the mid-levels,
showers and thunderstorms over the region this evening will be
pretty subdued. Shower activity tomorrow will be focused along the
Continental Divide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$