Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
578 FXUS65 KMSO 242002 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 202 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .DISCUSSION...A cold front is expected to move through the region Wednesday evening. A majority of the ensembles depict the timing of the front to move through north-central Idaho and northwestern Montana between 6 and 9 pm MDT, but then the front weakens as it moves through the remainder of western Montana and Lemhi County after 9 pm MDT. Gusty southwest to west winds to 30 mph are expected with the passage of the front. There is a 50 percent chance for thunderstorms from Clearwater County, Idaho north and east towards Kalispell and Glacier National Park. Storms could contain small hail, lightning, and gusty winds over 35 mph. The showers and storm threat with the front could bring sudden and erratic winds to area lakes of northwest Montana. With this in mind, we have issued wind advisories to cover these threats. There is a 50 to 60 percent chance for wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in the following locations: Yaak, Marion area, Ashley Lake area and Hot Springs. There is a 30 percent chance for heavy rain towards Logan Pass Wednesday night. Southerly winds between 10 and 20 mph will continue on Flathead Lake into Thursday. Not quite lake wind advisory-worthy, but could be choppy in places nonetheless. Somewhat cooler and breezy, zonal flow Thursday and Friday will transition to more ridging over the weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s. There is a 30 to 40 percent chance for a cold front to bring showers and gusty winds to northwest Montana again on Sunday. The probability for a front increases, up to 70 to 80 percent by Monday. So the bottom line is that one or both of those days could get quite breezy for recreation on area lakes in northwest Montana. Also the drier air behind the front could increase our chances for another bout of frost Monday or Tuesday. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions with generally light winds are expected for the remainder of today (Tuesday). Southerly winds will gradually increase on Wednesday in response to an incoming cold front that is expected to move across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana between 26/0000Z and 26/0300Z (6 and 9 pm MDT Wednesday). Strong gusty winds to 40 knots, small hail, lightning and brief heavy rain are possible with the showers and thunderstorms. The front will gradually weaken as it moves into southwest Montana by 26/0600z (12 am MDT Thursday). Mountain wave activity is expected to develop over the Continental Divide, especially towards Glacier National Park Thursday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region. ID...None. && $$