878
FXUS65 KMSO 111854
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1254 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...A weak cold front associated with a passing low
pressure system along the Canadian border will cause gusty
westerly winds this afternoon and evening. The strongest gusts
will be across northwest Montana with Flathead and Mission valleys
having around a 70% chance of having gusts in excess of 30 mph
today. Flathead Lake will experience some gusty winds with choppy
conditions, but the wind direction and cold water will hinder the
stronger winds from reaching the surface.

The cold front will cause temperatures to drop around 10 degrees
on Wednesday compared to today. Breezy conditions will persist
across Lemhi county and southwest Montana on Wednesday afternoon.
The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will create near
critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon hours.

A ridge of high pressure builds back over the region on Thursday
into Friday allowing for a warming and drying trend.

All the models are still indicating that a trough of low pressure
will settle over the region this weekend into the first part of
next week. The cold front associated with the pattern change
appears to move through the region Saturday/Saturday night. Around
45% of the models are indicating a closed low pressure system
moving over the Northern Rockies on Monday which will bring
widespread precipitation. The increased moisture and lowering snow
levels could bring accumulating snow to the higher terrain. The
mountains along the Continental Divide and across Lemhi county
& southwest Montana have a 50-70% chance of receiving at least an
inch of snow by Monday afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION...A weak cold front will traverse the Northern Rockies
this afternoon causing gusty westerly winds at all the terminals.
The winds will subsided slightly after sunset this evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$