730
FXUS65 KMSO 101846
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1246 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...A disturbance is still expected to move along the
Canadian border on Tuesday causing breezy conditions across
northwest Montana during the afternoon and evening hours. The
Mission and Flathead valleys have a 60 to 80% probability of
having wind gusts in excess of 30 mph. While the ridgetops near
the Continental Divide have a 50 to 70% of wind gusts greater than
50 mph. These winds will create difficult driving conditions for
high profile vehicles and tow trailers. Area lakes should
anticipate choppy conditions during the afternoon and evening
hours, especially Flathead lake.

The focus of gusty winds will shift to Lemhi county and southwest
Montana on Wednesday afternoon. The I-90 corridor from Garrison
Jct to Anaconda in Montana and Hwy 28 from Salmon to Gilmore
Summit have around a 50% chance of receiving wind gusts greater
than 30 mph on Wednesday.

A transitory ridge of high pressure moves over the Northern
Rockies on Thursday causing a warming and drying period. Then the
upper level flow becomes southwesterly on Friday. This flow
pattern will keep warm temperatures over the region, but a few
showers and thunderstorms could develop over Lemhi county into
southwest Montana during the afternoon.

All the models are now indicating that a trough of low pressure
will be over the region starting this weekend and lasting into at
least the first part of next week. The discrepancies in the models
are on the timing of the cold front Saturday into Sunday and the
strength of the overall low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION...A very subtle disturbance will continue to move
through west central Montana this afternoon causing vicinity
showers near KMSO and KHRF. These showers could begin to impact
KBTM by 10/20z. Gusty westerly winds are expected to develop this
afternoon and diminish after sunset this evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$