385
FXUS65 KMSO 031032
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
432 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.DISCUSSION...Steady rain, moderate to heavy at times, will
persist across Central Idaho and Western Montana through the
morning hours. Rainfall amounts from 0.10 to 0.20" will occur
per hour are possible, especially across central Idaho. This may
lead to minor flooding to low land areas, rises on small streams
and creeks, ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas, and
rock and debris on prone roadways.

A cold front will push through later this morning through the
afternoon hours. Strong and gusty winds will accompany this front.
Thus, a wind advisory is in effect across the entire Northern
Rockies through the early evening hours. Gusts 40 to 45 mph will
occur. Afternoon instability will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms may result in isolated gusty
winds over 45 mph.

Mountain showers and breezy winds will occur again Tuesday. Expect
wind gusts of 25-35 mph in the afternoon.

Strong high pressure will build over the western U.S. Wednesday
through this weekend resulting in much warmer temperatures and a
nice dry period across the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will
rise into the 70s across western Montana and lower 80s across the
lower valleys of central Idaho and Lehmhi county Wednesday.

Temperatures will continue to increase to well above normal
temperatures with readings well into the 80s Friday through the
weekend across western Montana. Some of lower lower valleys could
reach 90 degrees this weekend.

The biggest impact from temperatures will occur across the lower
valleys of Central Idaho with temperatures well into the mid and
upper 90s Friday through Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the
lower to mid 60s. This is the first extended hot spell of the
season for these lower valleys in Idaho so take necessary
precautions to adapt to these conditions.

Models are hinting at some moisture riding up through the ridge
across Southwest Montana and Lemhi county Saturday resulting in
some afternoon showers or thunderstorms.

Sunday models are struggling somewhat with their solutions. One
possibility is a short wave in Canada will briefly flatten the
ridge which will bring showers and a few thunderstorms across the
region as well as an increase in westerly winds on Sunday.
Confidence for this is low at this time, however note the
potential brief change on Sunday.

The warm temperatures and drier conditions will return early to
mid next week with the high pressure ridge nosing its way back up
into the Northern Rockies.


&&

.AVIATION...Persistent rains, moderate to heavy at times, will
continue through 1200 hours across the entire Northern Rockies.
All terminals will have lower ceilings, visibilities and mountain
obscurations this morning, especially near heavier showers.
Winds will be the other impact to all terminals from 03/1000 to
04/0300 as a cold front moves through the region. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected along and behind the front
this afternoon and evening. Occasional westerly wind gusts of
25-35 mph are expected, especially near a stronger shower. Wind
gusts over 35 mph are expected in the vicinity of showers/storms.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Lower Clark Fork Region...
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM PDT this afternoon
     for Northern Clearwater Mountains...Orofino/Grangeville
     Region.

&&

$$