418
FXUS65 KMSO 281808
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1208 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 60 MPH WINDS AFFECTING YOU...


.DISCUSSION...A trough is digging into the west coast and pushing
the ridge to the east and setting up southwest flow over the
region, which is a classic thunderstorm pattern for this area.
Convection already kicked off this morning across northwest
Montana, but has remained as showers and not yet become
thunderstorms.

The most unstable conditions and strongest shear started over
central Idaho near Grangeville and Orofino late this morning and
are moving across Idaho county. This is the area most likely to
get severe thunderstorms capable of producing winds over 60 mph or
large hail. There is a 10 percent chance of being affected by
winds greater than 60 mph for locations in central Idaho and
western Montana today and tonight. Thunderstorms will continue for
through the night and transition to showers Wednesday morning as
the trough finally moves into our region.

Wednesday, the base of the trough is over our region and it will
be windy with gusts in the 15-25 mph range common and temperatures
about 20 degrees cooler than today.

By the end of the week it will dry out again and return to near
average temperatures. The generally westerly flow will support
showers at times, but so far no models are indicating another
significant round of thunderstorms until next week.

&&

.AVIATION...The ridge over the area today is breaking down causing
increasing cloud cover and decreasing stability. Thunderstorms and
showers will initiate early this afternoon and persist across the
region through tonight. There is potential for severe
thunderstorms this evening, especially from 28/22Z through 29/01Z
when there is a 10 percent chance of a terminal being impacted by
60 mph or stronger winds. Tomorrow will be much cooler and
showery.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$