385
FXUS65 KMSO 220642
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1242 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...Lots of movement in the upper atmosphere, our
current weather maker a persistent trough slides east and is
briefly replaced by a ridge today. Both today and Sunday will be
quite warm with upper 80s western MT and upper 90s north-central
ID. The ridge is quickly broken down on Sunday with an uptick in
winds during the afternoon. Gusty winds across Flathead Lake may
cause choppy conditions, use caution if out recreating. The bigger
concern will be in the Beaverhead-DeerLodge National Forest where
gusts to 30 mph in addition to dry conditions will warrant extra
security of campfires or barbeque`s.

The ridge quickly rebuilds early next week and very warm
conditions return. High temperatures could be 10 to 15 degrees
above normal by the middle of the week. The normal first 90F
degree day for Missoula is June 18th, if we reach 90F on Wednesday
(26 June) it would be similar to 2022 when our 1st 90F was 27
June. The question is do we have sufficient soil moisture to slow
afternoon warming and delay till July the 1st 90F in Missoula.

After Wednesday, the models are suggesting a feature to affect the
Northern Rockies. There is a wide range of solutions from a open
wave to a cutoff low. Currently, there is a 30% chance of
receiving 0.10" of precipitation south of I-90 and 40% north of
I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will settle over the Northern Rockies
airspace. Expect VFR conditions with light, terrain driven winds
this afternoon.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$