423
FXUS65 KMSO 281924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
124 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...A ridge building over the region today will keep the
weather nice through tomorrow. But another trough is on the way
for Sunday as our active Spring and early Summer continues. The
timing of the trough Sunday means the best dynamic support for
thunderstorms will line up with the hottest, most unstable part of
the day over southwest Montana including parts of Silver Bow and
Deerlodge counties. There is 5 percent chance that some storms
will be severe in that area on Sunday.

In the long term, ensembles are showing quite a lot of variability
for next week. Independence Day has quite a lot of variability
with 83 percent of ensembles showing a ridge up stream. However,
even with the majority of members showing the upstream ridge,
there is enough variability in how far up stream the ridge axis is
that it makes all the difference between showers and thunderstorms
in northwest flow or clear skies. In either scenario, it will be
warm, slightly above average for temperatures though. So this
isn`t helpful for making a rain or thunderstorm forecast that far
out. But it should be noted that even though current ensembles are
very uncertain about the Independence Day forecast, that is itself
a trend away from a hot dry ridge that they were showing as
recently as yesterday. So overall, the ensembles are trending
towards continuing the unsettled weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...A ridge building over the region today will keep VFR
conditions at area terminals. The next significant weather system
expected is a trough on Sunday which will bring another round of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$