586
FXUS65 KMSO 280818
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
218 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...Rain continues to spread into northwest Montana,
particularly in the Glacier Region, as moisture wraps around the
low-pressure center just north of the Canadian border. High
elevation temperatures are chilly, with readings around 35
degrees reported at and above 7,000 feet. This morning, Glacier
National Park is experiencing cold rain or a rain-snow mix at high
elevations. The low-pressure system will move east today, causing
rain to decrease from west to east.

High pressure will briefly build into the Northern Rockies on
Saturday, leading to temperatures 5-10 degrees above average.

By Sunday, the ridge will move on, and the region will experience
southwest flow followed by another round of thunderstorms, which
are expected to be wet. Model clusters show high confidence in the
passage of the trough early next week but disagree on its depth.
Despite the differences, there is agreement that the focus for
rain will be in southwest Montana.

Previous model solutions for the second half of next week agreed
on high pressure building into the region, bringing warm and
mostly dry conditions. However, this agreement no longer holds.
Currently, about 50% of the WPC clusters suggest a warm and dry
pattern, while the other clusters indicate lower heights with
either northwesterly or southwesterly flow and chances of showers.


&&

.AVIATION...Low pressure is bringing cloud cover and rain into
northwest Montana, obscuring the terrain. While this weather
system is slowly moving east, rain and cloud cover will persist in
the Glacier Region for most of the day. Today`s westerly winds
are expected to shift to easterly this evening as an easterly
pressure gradient develops across north-central Idaho and western
Montana.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$