873
FNUS75 KMSO 171305
FWSMSO

Spot Forecast for Elkhorn Ridge Fire
National Weather Service Missoula MT
705 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on September 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are
expected into tonight with the best chances this
afternoon/evening. Wetting rain chances are high. In fact, there
is an 80% probability of at least 0.25" of rainfall, 50%
probability of at least 0.50" of rain. Locally heavy rain rates
will create the potential for debris flows.

Humidity will be fairly high, winds fairly light. Rain chances
will gradually decrease on Wednesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers likely and slight chance
  of thunderstorms in the morning, then rain showers and chance of
  thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...90 percent.
* Chance Lightning....40 percent.
* LAL.................3.
* Max Temperature.....62-67.
* Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Variable 2-4 mph becoming north 5-7 mph in
  the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl increasing to 5000 ft agl late in
  the afternoon.
* Mixing Winds........North 5 mph.
* Haines Index........2 very low.
* Precip Amount.......0.10-0.35 inches.

.TONIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers and chance of
  thunderstorms in the evening, then rain showers likely and slight
  chance of thunderstorms overnight.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...60 percent.
* Chance Lightning....40 percent.
* LAL.................3.
* Min Temperature.....45-50.
* Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Northwest 5-8 mph.
* Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Northwest 10 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.05-0.20 inches.

.WEDNESDAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...20 percent.
* Chance Lightning....0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Max Temperature.....58-63.
* Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........West 5-7 mph.
* Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Northwest 10 mph.
* Haines Index........2 very low.
* Precip Amount.......0.00-0.10 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Booth
Requested by...David Fox
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2420244.10/MSO
.DELDT 09/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.fox@usda.gov