152
FXUS66 KMTR 171035
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
335 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Pleasant day today with below normal temperatures and clear skies
inland. Marine stratus keep a hold on the coastline. Another round
of very light rain possible Wednesday. Warming trend on tap for
the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Not much notable change to the short term forecast over the last
24 hours. Today will be a fairly pleasant day with temps in the
60s and 70s area-wide. Nice and sunny inland, but the coastal
areas will hang on to the marine stratus thanks to a reforming
marine layer in the wake of the departing trough. There is a
slight chance of drizzle to end the day today along coastal areas
and ranges as the next upper trough approaches, bringing light
rain chances Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The system coming in Wednesday still looking weaker on the wind
side. Thinking more in line with 20-25 mph gusts as the front
rolls trough Tuesday afternoon, and still confined to the coast
and gap areas. A bit of a better chance for thunder with the
Wednesday system with increased low level moisture and slightly
better cooling aloft. Still a low chance (~15%) that mainly exists
over the North Bay through the mid-to-late morning. Rain amounts
still look to be on the lower side, if any. Beyond Wednesday there
really isn`t much noteworthy to write about. A casual warm up is
on tap going into the weekend that will bring our temperatures to
around seasonal normals. By the end of the weekend, there is still
a good deal of disagreement in ensemble guidance regarding the
strength of a possible ridge pattern. More on that in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

IFR and MVFR CIGs build through the night last into the mid to late
morning for most TAF sites, but last longer for coastal areas and
around the Monterey Bay. Pockets of drizzle and mist will affect the
coast as well as the Bays and STS in the late night through much of
the morning. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning.
Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into Sunday afternoon, but
status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate winds to
build into the afternoon and linger into the evening. Coastal cloud
cover moves slightly early Tuesday evening, affecting SNS and MRY
with IFR and MVFR CIGS becoming widespread later that night.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR CIGs build into the late night and last into
the late morning with some mist and pockets of fog in the area.
Expect light to moderate winds overnight. CIGs erode as winds build
in the late morning. Wind gusts will reduce slightly into Tuesday
evening as MVFR CIGs return.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs  with mist and drizzle last
through the late morning. Expect visibilities to improve in the late
morning as CIGs scatter and winds become more moderate. IFR CIGs
return early Tuesday evening as winds reduce.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 852 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Northwest winds continue to gradually decrease overnight in the
wake of yesterday`s cold front. Small craft warnings remain in
effect in the NW waters mainly for wind gusts more than 45 NM from
the coast. Rough seas are gradually abating in the NW waters and
will continue through the next 24 hours. There is a bit of a
break on Tuesday before a second cold front brings the return of
strong NW winds and rough seas to the exposed coastal waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Flynn

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