962
FXUS66 KMTR 182055
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Upper level trough will dig over California through midweek, with
breezy onshore winds continuing and temperatures near seasonal
averages prevailing through Thursday. The trough will remain in
place, but weaken for Friday and the weekend, with warmer
conditions developing once again across the inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Water vapor imagery continues to show the next disturbance
digging south along the Central Coast this afternoon, with high
clouds spreading across the region at this time. That said, the
cloud cover has done little to suppress temperatures today as
temperatures are currently running upwards of 8 degrees warmer
than this time yesterday. Onshore gradients are starting to
increase once again as well. However, not quite as strong as this
time yesterday. Meanwhile, the Fort Ord Profiler is the showing an
extremely compressed marine layer, about 200 feet currently. The
marine layer will slowly increase this evening and tonight, with
some patchy fog returning to the coastal areas during the late
night and early morning hours.

The upper level trough will remain over the West Coast on
Wednesday, with onshore flow prevailing. Temperatures will likely
cool a few degrees along the coast with the return the marine
layer, while inland areas will remain seasonal. Palmer

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The upper level trough will remain over the West, but gradually
start to fill Thursday through Saturday. As a result, a warming
trend will develop, especially for the inland areas. At this point
in time, the ensembles are hinting that Saturday will be the
warmest day, with the favored hot spots reaching into the triple
digits. However, there are some of the ensemble members
suggesting that the subtropical ridge could finally expand into
the region from the Desert Southwest, with warming conditions
persisting through the first part of the work week, especially
for the inland areas. Palmer

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR through the TAF period for the majority of terminals, with the
exception of Monterey Bay. Smoke continues to linger throughout the
region this morning bringing hazy skies but is expected to clear
towards the afternoon as onshore flow helps push smoke eastward.
That being said, winds expected to be onshore and breezy today,
though not as gusty as in previous days. A few gusts nearing 20 kt
are not out of the question for coastal terminals, higher at SFO. In
the late night, winds ease to become light for the majority of
terminals. Stratus will begin to creep up the coastline, and will
begin to advect inland where it is expected to bring MVFR CIGs to
KOAK and KMRY. Terminals elsewhere are likely only to see FEW low
clouds develop in the overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...Winds W/NW and moderate this afternoon, gusting
nearly to 30 kt at the highest. Winds ease into the late night, but
are not expected to become light until the early morning of
Wednesday. That aside, VFR expected through the TAF period, though
stratus pushing inland in the overnight hours is likely to bring SCT
low clouds. At this time, confidence is low in MVFR CIG development
for SFO in the night tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the evening tonight with breezy
NW winds. By the late evening, winds decrease and stratus is
expected to form MVFR CIGs. However, there is some question as to
whether CIGs this evening will develop at IFR altitudes rather than
MVFR initially, as the Ft. Ord Profiler currently shows a marine
layer very near to the surface. Confidence on CIGs initially
developing at MVFR levels is only moderate.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1141 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Fresh and gusty northwesterly winds continue. Gusty winds will
diminish overall towards late Wednesday with strong breezes
persisting over the northern outer waters through the weekend.
Significant wave heights will build to 9-11 feet today, abate
through Friday, and build back up to 10-12 feet towards the end of
the the weekend as larger northwesterly swell enters the waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay
     N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Palmer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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