Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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565 FXUS66 KMTR 190005 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 505 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Upper level trough will dig over California through midweek, with breezy onshore winds continuing and temperatures near seasonal averages prevailing through Thursday. The trough will remain in place, but weaken for Friday and the weekend, with warmer conditions developing once again across the inland areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Water vapor imagery continues to show the next disturbance digging south along the Central Coast this afternoon, with high clouds spreading across the region at this time. That said, the cloud cover has done little to suppress temperatures today as temperatures are currently running upwards of 8 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Onshore gradients are starting to increase once again as well. However, not quite as strong as this time yesterday. Meanwhile, the Fort Ord Profiler is the showing an extremely compressed marine layer, about 200 feet currently. The marine layer will slowly increase this evening and tonight, with some patchy fog returning to the coastal areas during the late night and early morning hours. The upper level trough will remain over the West Coast on Wednesday, with onshore flow prevailing. Temperatures will likely cool a few degrees along the coast with the return the marine layer, while inland areas will remain seasonal. Palmer && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The upper level trough will remain over the West, but gradually start to fill Thursday through Saturday. As a result, a warming trend will develop, especially for the inland areas. At this point in time, the ensembles are hinting that Saturday will be the warmest day, with the favored hot spots reaching into the triple digits. However, there are some of the ensemble members suggesting that the subtropical ridge could finally expand into the region from the Desert Southwest, with warming conditions persisting through the first part of the work week, especially for the inland areas. Palmer && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 451 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the evening hours into early morning Wednesday for all terminals. Lingering smoke has resulted in hazy skies but has not limited visibility below VFR. Westerly onshore winds will ease this evening. Low stratus deck is expected to build from south to north during the overnight hours, with KMRY the only terminal expected to drop MVFR. Vicinity of SFO...Gusty west winds will ease some this evening, but remain breezy through the overnight. Some low stratus may reach the Bay area by early Wednesday morning around sunrise, with MVFR ceilings possible at KOAK, but not currently in the TAF. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to persist this evening into the overnight hours with breezy NW winds. Winds are expected to ease by the early morning hours with MVFR/IFR ceilings possible at KMRY, though some uncertainty remains on the eventual redevelopment of the marine layer. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Fresh and gusty northwesterly winds continue. Gusty winds will diminish overall towards late Wednesday with strong breezes persisting over the northern outer waters through the weekend. Significant wave heights will build to 9-11 feet today, abate through Friday, and build back up to 10-12 feet towards the end of the the weekend as larger northwesterly swell enters the waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM....Palmer AVIATION...JM MARINE...AC Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea