Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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962 FXUS66 KMTR 182055 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Upper level trough will dig over California through midweek, with breezy onshore winds continuing and temperatures near seasonal averages prevailing through Thursday. The trough will remain in place, but weaken for Friday and the weekend, with warmer conditions developing once again across the inland areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Water vapor imagery continues to show the next disturbance digging south along the Central Coast this afternoon, with high clouds spreading across the region at this time. That said, the cloud cover has done little to suppress temperatures today as temperatures are currently running upwards of 8 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Onshore gradients are starting to increase once again as well. However, not quite as strong as this time yesterday. Meanwhile, the Fort Ord Profiler is the showing an extremely compressed marine layer, about 200 feet currently. The marine layer will slowly increase this evening and tonight, with some patchy fog returning to the coastal areas during the late night and early morning hours. The upper level trough will remain over the West Coast on Wednesday, with onshore flow prevailing. Temperatures will likely cool a few degrees along the coast with the return the marine layer, while inland areas will remain seasonal. Palmer && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The upper level trough will remain over the West, but gradually start to fill Thursday through Saturday. As a result, a warming trend will develop, especially for the inland areas. At this point in time, the ensembles are hinting that Saturday will be the warmest day, with the favored hot spots reaching into the triple digits. However, there are some of the ensemble members suggesting that the subtropical ridge could finally expand into the region from the Desert Southwest, with warming conditions persisting through the first part of the work week, especially for the inland areas. Palmer && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR through the TAF period for the majority of terminals, with the exception of Monterey Bay. Smoke continues to linger throughout the region this morning bringing hazy skies but is expected to clear towards the afternoon as onshore flow helps push smoke eastward. That being said, winds expected to be onshore and breezy today, though not as gusty as in previous days. A few gusts nearing 20 kt are not out of the question for coastal terminals, higher at SFO. In the late night, winds ease to become light for the majority of terminals. Stratus will begin to creep up the coastline, and will begin to advect inland where it is expected to bring MVFR CIGs to KOAK and KMRY. Terminals elsewhere are likely only to see FEW low clouds develop in the overnight. Vicinity of SFO...Winds W/NW and moderate this afternoon, gusting nearly to 30 kt at the highest. Winds ease into the late night, but are not expected to become light until the early morning of Wednesday. That aside, VFR expected through the TAF period, though stratus pushing inland in the overnight hours is likely to bring SCT low clouds. At this time, confidence is low in MVFR CIG development for SFO in the night tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the evening tonight with breezy NW winds. By the late evening, winds decrease and stratus is expected to form MVFR CIGs. However, there is some question as to whether CIGs this evening will develop at IFR altitudes rather than MVFR initially, as the Ft. Ord Profiler currently shows a marine layer very near to the surface. Confidence on CIGs initially developing at MVFR levels is only moderate. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Fresh and gusty northwesterly winds continue. Gusty winds will diminish overall towards late Wednesday with strong breezes persisting over the northern outer waters through the weekend. Significant wave heights will build to 9-11 feet today, abate through Friday, and build back up to 10-12 feet towards the end of the the weekend as larger northwesterly swell enters the waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM....Palmer AVIATION...AC MARINE...AC Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea