436
FXUS66 KMTR 181047
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
347 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 123 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Breezy onshore winds and temperatures near seasonal averages
continue through Thursday, with another warming trend for the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 123 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Winds are generally light this morning with the upper level trough
that drove the intense daytime winds progressing eastward across the
Intermountain West. Mid to high level clouds will flow over the
region today. Breezy onshore winds will develop this afternoon, but
they won`t be as intense as what we`ve seen this last weekend. Low
temperatures this morning will generally be in the low to mid 50s in
the lower elevations, to the upper 50s and around 60 in the higher
elevations. High temperatures today will range from the upper 50s to
mid 60s along the coast, to the mid to upper 70s along the Bayshore,
and the mid 80s to lower 90s in the inland valleys.

Smoke from the Point Fire in northwestern Sonoma County and the
Sites Fire in Colusa County is expected to travel towards the south
and southeast, impacting the Bay Area and Central Coast with haze
and moments of smoke. Although the Red Flag Warning for the North
Bay interior mountains was allowed to expire last night, elevated
fire danger remains across the interior regions. The air remains
very dry with daytime relative humidities in the 10-30 percent range
across the inland areas and the coastal ranges, with breezy onshore
winds gusting up to 20-30 miles per hour in the afternoon. Humidity
recoveries overnight are expected to progressively improve through
the week, but remain poor across the interior mountains and the
Santa Lucias.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 123 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A weak upper level trough develops over the state, continuing to
hover over the area for the next few days and promoting the
redevelopment of the marine layer and its associated stratus clouds.
Temperatures dip on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
in the inland valleys to the mid 50s to lower 60s along the coast,
before Thursday sees a few degrees of warming.

By Friday, the trough will erode as a ridge builds into the western
United States. The warmest temperatures are expected on Saturday,
where highs will range from the 90s to lower 100s for the inland
regions, the mid 70s to low 80s for the Bayshore, and the low to mid
60s for the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 341 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Widespread VFR lasts through late Tuesday night.  Winds stay
light into the late morning before moderate to breezy winds arrive
into Tuesday afternoon. Smoke from fires to the north could cause
some haze and smoke to filter into the North Bay and around the
SF Bay, but visibilities don`t look to be greatly affected. Winds
will reduce into Tuesday evening. IFR CIGs build around the
Monterey Bay into the late night, affecting MRY. MVFR CIGs filter
into the SF Bay early Wednesday morning, filling over OAK.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect moderate
winds until another round of breezy to gusty arrive in the
afternoon with peak gusts expected to be around 28 kts. These
stronger gusts last into the night. Gusts stop but moderate winds
last through Wednesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts through late Tuesday night.
Light winds last through the late morning before more moderate
westerly winds arrive for the afternoon. Winds at the terminals
reduce into Tuesday night. IFR CIGS begin to move inland into
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Breezy to gusty northerly/northwesterly winds continue. Gusty
winds will diminish overall beginning Thursday with strong breezes
remaining exclusive to the outer waters through the weekend.
Significant wave heights will build to 9-11 feet today, abate
through Friday, and build back up to 10-12 feet towards the end of
the the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay
     N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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