Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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136 FXUS63 KOAX 191725 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1225 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances continue every day through Saturday, especially across northern parts of the area. Severe storms are unlikely though. - Temperatures will be much cooler today, but warming back up by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Temperatures this morning are noticeably cooler than those 24 hours prior... generally by about 15 degrees. Today`s high temps will be cooler than Tuesday`s by about 15-20 degrees, leaving A/C units a chance to catch their breaths. The cold front responsible for last evening`s thunderstorm activity is now just through the last reaches of southeast Nebraska, though scattered showers continue on just this side of MO/IA and MO/NE state lines. With 700-250 hPa winds almost parallel with the front, expect very little southeastern progression through the day today. The number and intensity of showers developing on the front should be lower than those of Tuesday night, but chance POPs are warranted, especially along the front draped from about Waterloo, IA to Topeka, KS which will include far southwest Iowa and extreme southeast Nebraska. An uptick in activity this afternoon will be diurnally driven with ML CAPE values managing just over 1000 J/kg. With BWD at only about 20 knots, severe weather is unlikely. There will be plenty of moisture available with NAEFS mean integrated WV transport well-above the June climatology as what may be the first named tropical storm of the season (Alberto) works toward southern Texas and the associated moisture rounds the heat dome of the eastern CONUS. PWAT values will push to 2". Highest QPF will happen after midnight with 1/2" possible in the CWA`s ten most northernmost counties. .THURSDAY... The Southeast`s ridging builds west, pushing precip chances farther north. High temps will range from near 80 along the SD border to near 90 for locations close to Missouri. .FRIDAY and the WEEKEND... A surface low develops in the lee of the Rockies on Friday with a warm front pushing north through eastern Nebraska. South of the front, southerly winds will push temps into the lower 90s and dewpoints close to 70. It`ll be hot and muggy with maximum apparent temps pushing into the mid-90s. Severe weather is possible west of here as the surface low pushes northeast and the cold front pushes southeast. The attendant cold front pushes through mid-day Saturday, warranting chance POPs. Behind the wave, reduced temps (80s) and dewpoints (lower 60s) with sunny skies should leave the day one of the more pleasant of the forecast. .NEXT WEEK... Return flow develops quickly, pushing temps and humidity higher for Monday and Tuesday which will leave the atmosphere capable of unleashing more convection should an impulse find a path towards the mid-Missouri Valley. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Widely scattered light showers were ongoing as of 12 PM (17z) across portions of eastern NE and southwest IA with a general decrease in areal coverage noted over the past couple of hours. While sprinkles or a brief shower are possible at KOMA and/or KLNK this afternoon, the forecast will indicate dry conditions at those two locations through Thursday morning. At KOFK, showers will become increasingly likely late tonight into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the main forecast challenge is timing the onset of MVFR to IFR ceilings at the terminal locations. Some models suggest the potential for a period of MVFR ceilings late this afternoon at KOMA and KLNK, which have been accounted for with a TEMPO group. Greater confidence in MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings is tonight into Thursday morning. Finally, winds will transition from northeast to east or southeast tonight into Thursday morning at generally less than 12 kt. A brief period of 12+kt winds is possible early this afternoon at KOMA and KLNK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Mead