079
FXUS63 KOAX 101946
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmest days of the year so far Wednesday and Thursday. Heat
  index values of 95 to 100 across much of the area Wednesday
  and 100 to 105 across portions of southeast Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa Thursday.

- Showers and a few storms possible tonight into Tuesday
  (20-40% chance). Higher chances for stronger to severe storms
  arrive Wednesday (northeast Nebraska) and Thursday (southeast
  Nebraska and southwest Iowa).

- Details remain unclear, but we`ll have daily storm chances
  Friday into next week with potential for strong to severe
  storms at times.

- Warm weather expected to stick around for the weekend and much
  of next week (highs in the upper 80s and 90s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Pretty quiet across the region early this afternoon with an upper
level ridge axis just to our west. Temperatures as of 2 PM were
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile to our west, a shortwave
trough was pushing across MT/WY with a surface front in its
vicinity. This front will eventually work into the area tonight
into early Tuesday, bringing scattered showers and perhaps a few
isolated storms. However, moisture and instability really taper
off as you move east into our area, so expect precip to
diminish fairly quickly as it moves in, which is shown fairly
well by the latest CAMs. Guidance does suggest some instability
builds along the boundary during the day, so could eventually
see some redevelopment along the boundary later in the day, but
most should stay dry.

While Tuesday will be warmer than today (highs in the mid to upper
80s), Wednesday really marks the beginning of notably warmer
temperatures as southerly flow strengthens and ushers in widespread
90s with mid 60s dewpoints. As a result, expect heat index values to
be in the mid 90s to around 100. In addition, plenty of instability
(3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE) will be in place for storms as a cold
front pushes through SD and into MN/IA. Guidance hints that portions
of northeast NE could be clipped by these storms and while the
instability alone would likely be enough for some strong to severe
storms, shear sufficient for storm organization will also be present
in that area. Really the main question will be if we get enough
forcing for storms go up in our area. If we do, large hail and
damaging winds would be the primary threats.

The storm chances will continue Thursday as the surface boundary
pushes south and stalls somewhere within a few counties of the NE/KS
border. Wherever this sets up will see a severe weather threat, with
plenty of instability in place once again and deep layer shear near
and just north of the boundary being sufficient for supercells. In
addition, frontal positioning will greatly impact temperatures with
areas near and south seeing mid to upper 90s and heat index values
of 100 to 105 and areas north seeing mid 80s to lower 90s.

That boundary is expected to hang out somewhere in or just south of
the forecast area into the weekend, bringing continued shower and
(at times severe) storm chances. Guidance is in decent agreement
that a stronger shortwave trough slides through at some point Friday
night into Saturday, potentially bringing more widespread storm
chances, but for the most part, chances should be maximized near the
boundary which guidance suggests could hang around into early next
week. Temperature-wise, expect a slight "cooldown" Friday with highs
in the mid to upper 80s, but upper 80s to lower 90s will return for
the weekend into early next week. In summary, summery.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing mid to
high clouds into the overnight hours. A weak front will bring
a some spotty showers and possibly isolated storms to the area
overnight with the highest chances of any impacts being at OFK,
as any precip should diminish as it pushes east. For now, only
included -SHRA mention, but can`t rule out some brief MVFR if a
thunderstorm moves directly over the site. Otherwise, expect
winds to remain under 12 kts and mainly be southerly today
followed by southwesterly to westerly near and behind the
front.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA