347
FXUS63 KOAX 270355
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dry
  conditions will continue into Monday.

- A cold front will sweep through the area Monday afternoon /
  evening with highs in the 60s to low 70s on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Tonight through this weekend:

A large-scale blocking pattern will persist across much of the
CONUS through the weekend. The primary components of that
pattern are a deep-layer low east of the MS River Valley, which
will be enhanced by the remains of hurricane Helene, and a
ridge over the central and southern Rockies into the northern
Plains and upper MS Valley. We will reside within the transition
zone between those two regimes with continued dry and warm
conditions expected. Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid
80s, some 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year.


Monday through Wednesday:

An amplifying short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level
jet streaks are forecast to move through central Canada and the
north-central U.S. Monday into Monday night with a related,
surface cold front surging south through the mid MO Valley. The
12z global models indicate the front moving through the area
Monday afternoon and evening with highs in the mid to upper 80s
forecast ahead of it. Moisture will remain limited with a dry
frontal passage anticipated. A cooler, continental-polar air
mass will overspread the region behind the front with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s forecast on Tuesday.

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level flow pattern will
transition to quasi-zonal with a strengthening warm advection
pattern developing in the low levels. Highs on Wednesday are
expected to bounce back into the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions favored through the period with passing high
clouds at times. Mostly clear skies and light winds overnight
suggest potential for fog development, especially in river
valleys, including near OMA, but most guidance keeps us clear,
so not including mention at this time. Otherwise expect winds to
remain light and stay southeasterly overnight, before becoming
northeasterly Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...CA