114
FXUS63 KOAX 251843
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
143 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to just above average temperatures will continue with
  highs expected in the low to mid 80s through Monday. Dry
  conditions will persist.

- A cold front sweeping through the area late Monday will bring
  high temperatures back into the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Short Range (Today & Tomorrow)

Current upper level analysis depicts an area of low pressure over
MO/IL/KY embedded in a large positively tilted trough over the
eastern CONUS. An additional trough is moving onshore over the
Pacific Northwest, leaving a ridge centered over the Four Corners
region. This pattern is bringing predominantly northerly upper level
flow to the area. In addition, newly upgraded Hurricane Helene
remains just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula before an
expected landfall in northern Florida later this week.

Conditions today will remain pleasant as surface high pressure
continues to stretch across the region. 850 mb temperature anomalies
remain in the 3 to 7 degree celsius range. High temperatures
are expected to peak today in the upper 70s/low 80s under mostly
clear skies. These high temperatures remain 4 to 6 degrees
above our climatological average for the end of September.
Radiational cooling overnight will drop lows into the low 50s,
near to slightly above average. Tomorrow will look very similar
to today`s conditions with highs once again expected in the low
80s.

Long Range (Friday and Beyond)

High temperature Friday through weekend will take a small step up
into the mid 80s. The evolution of land falling Hurricane
Helene will dictate and precipitation chances over the weekend.
As Helene interacts with the aforementioned low over the
southeast CONUS, model guidance continue to lean towards a track
far enough east to keep any wrap around precipitation to our
southeast. Nearly all GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members keep the
area dry with the few bringing precipitation only dropping
negligible totals. It should be safe to assume that this weekend
looks rather warm and dry.

The next pattern change will come Monday afternoon/evening as the
aforementioned Pacific Northwest trough shifts east and pushes a
cold front through the area. No precipitation is expected with the
frontal passage. Monday highs will be determined by the time of
the frontal passage with the low 80s expected ahead of the
front and mid 70s expected behind the front. Tuesday highs are
expected to take a dip into the upper 60s/low 70s. The warm and
dry trend looks to continue as the CPCs 8-14 day outlook is
expecting temperatures likely above average and precipitation
totals leaning below average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Calm northerly winds
will gradually shift clockwise to southerly by 00Z and to
southwesterly this evening. Skies will remain mostly clear apart
from a few clouds at FL250 this afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood