266
FXUS63 KOAX 241050
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
550 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms ending early this morning, then windy with
  northwest winds, but below wind advisory criteria.

- Quiet and pleasant weather Friday and Saturday.

- Thunderstorm chances increase to 60 to 90 percent Saturday
  night with a slight risk of severe storms south of I80, with a
  15 to 30 percent chance for wind and hail. Also a slight risk
  of excessive heavy rainfall.

- Still a marginal risk of severe storms in extreme southeast NE
  and southwest IA Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The line of severe storms is curring moving through western IA
and extreme southeast NE, and will exit our coverage area within
the hour. Rain and rumbles of thunder continue behind the main
line, but will continue to march out of the area by 14-15z.
Afterward northwest winds will blow at 15 to 30 mph today, but
gusts remaining below advisory criteria. High temperatures will
range in the upper 60s in northeast NE, to the lower 70s south
of I80.


Quiet and pleasant weather continues Saturday, with winds
switching to the southeast at 10 to 20 mph, and high
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s.

The next chance for rain comes Saturday night into Sunday as the
next upper trough and associated frontal boundary moves into the
region. Pops do increase to 60 to 90 percent Saturday night,
with the highest values south of I80. This is also coincident
with the severe risk area where SPC has placed a slight risk for
severe storms with a 15 to 30 percent chance for damaging winds
and large hail, and WPC generally has the area in a slight risk
for excessive heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts Saturday night
could range one quarter to one half inch for northeast NE, and
three quarters to one and one quarter inch for southeast NE and
southwest IA.

Lingering thundershowers will be in the area Sunday morning
behind the first system, but additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible continue Sunday night into Monday
as another short wave moves out of the northern Rockies.
Temperatures will still be decent Sunday in the lower to middle
70s, but a northwest wind at 15 to 20 mph and the 40-60% chance
of rain may put a damper on at least this day of the Memorial
holiday weekend.

For Memorial Day itself, we are hopeful that the weather mostly
pushes east of the local area, with high temperatures again in
the lower to middle 70s.

Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances back in the
forecast for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A few sprinkles or light rain showers may linger through 13Z
across southeast Iowa and southwest Nebraska. This should stay
south and east of TAF sites. Otherwise, gusty winds up to 25
knots will be possible between 15 and 22Z at all TAF sites,
particularly at KOFK. Have opted to keep gusts out of prevailing
group in TAFs due to expected low frequency of these higher
gusts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Darrah