Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 170422
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1122 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Main forecast concern is centered around excessive heat over the
next few days in addition to overnight thunderstorm activity.

Very isolated thunderstorms have pulsed up this afternoon across the
region with the strongest across western IA in association with a
weak westward moving differential mixing boundary. The isolated
storm that did develop across Cass County IA produced a confirmed
tornado but overall storm motion was to the southeast and out of
our forecast area. Cannot rule out a few more isolated storms
developing across western Iowa near this boundary where updrafts
are able to be sustained at least until we lose heating with
sunset. Otherwise, additional convection is possible overnight in
association with lift from veered nocturnal low-level jet, mainly
in our north and northeastern counties.

Focus turns to the prolonged period of excessive heat. Did upgrade
southern counties into an Excessive Heat Warning and continued the
Watch for our northern counties to blend in with the neighboring
offices. Concern continues to be the prolonged period of heat in
addition to the above normal overnight low temperatures. Overnight
convection each night could lead to lingering residual cloud cover
which could delay the heat to some extent during the early part of
each day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Some concern continues around excessive heat continuing into
Saturday as a boundary extends through the region. We still have
time to consider so did not extend at this time. Continued
overnight chances for thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

An MCS over western into south-central SD as of 11 PM is forecast
to track generally east overnight with some potential for storms
to develop south into portions of northeast NE during the pre-dawn
hours. Confidence in storms affecting the TAF sites is presently
too low to include in the current forecast. Otherwise, the
presence of a very moist air mass could contribute to patchy fog
overnight. On Wednesday, winds are forecast to increase from the
southeast by mid to late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for NEZ030-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for IAZ043-055-056.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead


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