741
FXUS63 KOAX 222259
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
559 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures through the work/school week with low
  chance (20-30%) of showers Tuesday; otherwise mostly dry
  conditions through Thursday.

- Complex weather pattern late in the week, as upper low
  interacts with tropical system, could affect longer range
  precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Mostly cloudy skies hold through this afternoon with northerly
winds keeping temperatures cool. Temperatures across the area in
the afternoon are staying in the 60s. The band of moisture
convergence generating showers continues to hang across
southeastern Nebraska, leading to scattered light rain showers.
This band will continue to hang over this area through tonight,
becoming more and more isolated by Monday morning.

Monday, for the first full day of Fall, should be a very nice
day with highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Skies will be clearing
through the morning hours as the anticyclonic side of the trough
moves over the area, leading to isentropic decent.

The next trough arrives out of the northern Rockies Monday night
into Tuesday morning, bringing a chance for some scattered
showers starting after midnight Monday night. Moisture will be
limited ahead of this system, with the bulk of moisture from the
Gulf getting cut off by the stalled front across Texas and
Arkansas. Any rainfall amounts through Tuesday should be light.

A strong upper-level ridge building in on Wednesday will bring
back clear skies. This will allow temperatures to get up into
the upper 70s to near 80 Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the
Tuesday trough pinches off from the mean flow and meanders over
the KS/MO/OK/AR region.

The forecast going into this weekend is somewhat uncertain as
models have this cut-off Low interacting with a developing
tropical system that moves up into the eastern Gulf-Coast States
late Thursday or Friday. Depending on how this interacts with
the cut-off Low, we could see chances for showers return Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Scattered to broken clouds at FL120 will gradually break
up overnight in southeast Nebraska. A scattered rain shower this
evening cannot be ruled out, though the chances are low (15%
chance). Calm northerly winds will shift to southerly around
13-15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood