247
FXUS63 KOAX 250749
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
249 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures in the lower 80s with mostly dry
  conditions are on tap through Monday.

- A dry cold front is expected to pass through the area late
  Monday into early Tuesday and will send temperatures back into
  the 70s area-wide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Today through Friday:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a high-amplitude ridge
over the western half of the CONUS centered over the Four Corners
region, with a positively-tilted trough rooted over the Mid-
Mississippi Valley extending northeastward towards the eastern Great
Lakes. Also creeping northward is tropical storm Helene, which is
currently affecting the Yucatan Peninsula and is poised to play
a part in the overall synoptic pattern going forward. Taking a
look at the surface, the local area has been relatively swept
clear from better moisture by the mid/upper trough and
associated cold front, while surface high pressure builds
eastward from its anchor point over the Colorado area.

The main theme of the remaining work week will be the increasing
influence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge over the area,
resulting in slightly warmer but dry conditions. Looking to the
southeastern CONUS, a local maximum of mid-level vorticity will
pinch off and swirl over the MO/TN/KY vicinity, keeping the upstream
upper pattern rather stagnant while Helene moves northward. Highs
over the next three days locally will range from the upper 70s to
low 80s, with generally light winds switching southeasterly this
afternoon while skies remain mostly clear.

This Weekend and Beyond:

By late Friday into the weekend, Helene will have made landfall and
combined with the aforementioned swirling mid-level low over
the southeastern CONUS, beginning its extremely slow drift to
the east as the zonal upper jet moves south and increases its
influence on that feature. With little westward drift to be
found in any of the recent model runs of the deterministic or
ensemble variety in that mid/upper low, we`ll find ourselves
missing out on any of the wraparound rainfall as we are warded
from the better moisture to the east and south. We`re currently
maintaining no rainfall in the forecast for the next 7 days,
with the main forecast point of note being a dry cold front
passage late Monday into Tuesday that will drop temperatures
from the low 80s back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some patchy fog
could develop over southwest Iowa and far southeast Nebraska
tonight. Otherwise, expect skies to remain mostly clear
overnight, with light northwest winds veering to the north by
Wednesday afternoon, and east Wednesday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...KG