Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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819 FXUS63 KOAX 252316 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 616 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to just above average temperatures will continue with highs expected in the low to mid 80s through Monday. Dry conditions will persist. - A cold front sweeping through the area late Monday will bring high temperatures back into the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Short Range (Today & Tomorrow) Current upper level analysis depicts an area of low pressure over MO/IL/KY embedded in a large positively tilted trough over the eastern CONUS. An additional trough is moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest, leaving a ridge centered over the Four Corners region. This pattern is bringing predominantly northerly upper level flow to the area. In addition, newly upgraded Hurricane Helene remains just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula before an expected landfall in northern Florida later this week. Conditions today will remain pleasant as surface high pressure continues to stretch across the region. 850 mb temperature anomalies remain in the 3 to 7 degree celsius range. High temperatures are expected to peak today in the upper 70s/low 80s under mostly clear skies. These high temperatures remain 4 to 6 degrees above our climatological average for the end of September. Radiational cooling overnight will drop lows into the low 50s, near to slightly above average. Tomorrow will look very similar to today`s conditions with highs once again expected in the low 80s. Long Range (Friday and Beyond) High temperature Friday through weekend will take a small step up into the mid 80s. The evolution of land falling Hurricane Helene will dictate and precipitation chances over the weekend. As Helene interacts with the aforementioned low over the southeast CONUS, model guidance continue to lean towards a track far enough east to keep any wrap around precipitation to our southeast. Nearly all GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members keep the area dry with the few bringing precipitation only dropping negligible totals. It should be safe to assume that this weekend looks rather warm and dry. The next pattern change will come Monday afternoon/evening as the aforementioned Pacific Northwest trough shifts east and pushes a cold front through the area. No precipitation is expected with the frontal passage. Monday highs will be determined by the time of the frontal passage with the low 80s expected ahead of the front and mid 70s expected behind the front. Tuesday highs are expected to take a dip into the upper 60s/low 70s. The warm and dry trend looks to continue as the CPCs 8-14 day outlook is expecting temperatures likely above average and precipitation totals leaning below average. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light winds will gradually shift to the south after 00Z, under mostly clear skies. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...KG