714
FXUS64 KOHX 230717
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
217 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Clear skies with just a touch of wind at forecast has things pretty
quiet this morning. Dew point depressions are finally starting to
come down as we cool from the heating of the day, so look for a
little patchy fog before daybreak. We`ve made it to Sunday, and as
we`ve been advertising for several days now, today will finally
bring some showers and thunderstorms to Middle TN. I wish I could
say everyone is going to see this rain but I don`t think that`s
going to be the case. Our first sprigs of rain should start to rear
their head by mid-morning across the northwest and because of the
strong inversion around 700 mb (the one that kept storms tamped down
yesterday), I don`t think they`ll amount to much. However, as we
move through the rest of the day, with this frontal boundary
approaching, that inversion should get eroded. That will open the
door for scattered storms late this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Models are only doing 30-40% PoP throughout today, which
spells not everyone getting some of this activity. Maybe you`ll be
one of the lucky few. Based on forecast soundings, I can`t rule out
a wind gust or two, but lapse rates have fallen off to the 5.0-5.5
deg/Km range again. This will be too low for any widespread wind
gusts. Rainfall with any of these storms should be healthy, but I
have them moving just fast enough to negate any flooding concerns.
Rains should be out of here by midnight setting up Monday and
Tuesday to be dry behind the frontal passage.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

While temperatures will be a degree or two cooler today, the
thermostat gets cranked back up Monday and Tuesday as the eastern
influences of an upper ridge affect the area. NBM has backed off a
couple of degrees for forecast highs both days, which doesn`t
surprise me a whole lot. It takes a lot for BNA to reach 100. We did
it last summer, but it was the first time since 2012. That said, 97,
98, 99. Does it really matter? It`s stinkin` hot. Heat Index values
will still hover in the low triple digits for those west of the
Cumberland Plateau.

By Tuesday night, we`ll be fortunate enough to have rain chances
increase again due to the effects of another unseasonable synoptic
system and by Wednesday afternoon, the passage of another frontal
boundary. Like today, the introduction of a boundary into an
unstable air mass will help storms develop, however, the difference
between today and Wednesday is the upper support will provide better
rain chances for this mid-week system. Forecast soundings have lapse
rates being a little better (5.5-6.0 deg/Km), which should support
at least an isolated wind threat, but with shear values of 20-25
kts, I don`t think we`re talking anything widespread.

An enjoyable respite from the heat will follow Wednesday`s frontal
passage, but it`s going to be short lived as temperatures are
expected to rebound pretty quickly. Upper 90s will return by week`s
end once again. The next chance of rain could be next Saturday night
or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

High pressure is finally sliding off to the east, and this will
pave the way for a weak surface boundary approaching Middle
Tennessee from the northwest to push through the mid state on
Sunday. There are scattered PoPs in the forecast for this
afternoon and early evening, and for now we`ll cover this with
PROB30 remarks for TSRA during peak-heating hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  73  95  71 /  40  10   0   0
Clarksville    92  69  93  70 /  30  10   0   0
Crossville     88  66  86  62 /  40  40   0   0
Columbia       96  70  96  69 /  30  20   0   0
Cookeville     89  68  87  65 /  40  40   0   0
Jamestown      88  66  86  62 /  40  40   0   0
Lawrenceburg   94  70  94  68 /  30  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   96  71  94  68 /  30  20   0   0
Waverly        92  69  93  70 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose