104
FXUS64 KOHX 260544
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A line of thunderstorms over northern KY are pushing towards the
south, with an outflow boundary beginning to move into northern
Middle TN. Watching this line of thunderstorms closely, but CAMs
are adamant that this will break up before they reach our area.
Introduced some small PoPs across the northwest late this evening
just in case these thunderstorms do hold together. But the rest of
the forecast remains on track with better storm chances during the
afternoon tomorrow as an upper-level trough swings through the
area with a few of these storms potentially becoming strong to
severe with damaging winds the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Toasty but fairly unhumid day across the midstate with current
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s but dewpoints down in the
upper 50s to low 60s. This drier airmass along with ample sunshine
will allow highs to soar into the mid to upper 90s today west of
the Plateau. Deeper low level moisture is lurking just southwest
of our cwa and will begin moving back into the area later today,
and as a result the HRRR and CONSShort models show a couple of
popup showers or maybe a thunderstorm late this afternoon or
evening - mainly in our southwest counties. Therefore added a
very slight chance pop based on this potential.

Tomorrow continues to appear to be our best rain chances over the
next 7 days as an upper trough swings down from the north,
forcing a cold front across the region. Guidance varies wildly on
coverage and timing of showers and storms tomorrow, but in
general highest precip chances will be during the afternoon with
high likely pops warranted. Temperatures will be a challenge
tomorrow especially if there are considerable clouds and rain
during the morning, but otherwise should be a another hot and
humid day with highs well into the 90s. Forecast soundings are
all over the place with the NAM its usual aggressive self, but
consensus is around 1000-1500 J/Kg MLCAPE with mid level lapse
rates between 5-6 C/Km and deep layer shear near or less than 20
knots. These parameters, while not very impressive, would still
be favorable for a few storms to become strong or possibly severe
with damaging microburst winds the main threat. If storms can
congeal into clusters or lines as the NAM suggests, there could
be a bit higher potential for damaging winds, but this is
uncertain. SPC continues to highlight our forecast area in a
marginal risk for tomorrow, which seems quite reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Rain chances will end on Thursday and a much cooler and less
humid day is anticipated, with highs only in the mid 80s to
around 90. This cooldown will be unfortunately brief as an upper
ridge builds across much of the southern US into the weekend.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s for much of the midstate
Friday and Saturday with potential for a few spots to hit 100. In
addition, low level moisture is expected to be higher than we
have seen recently with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s,
which will bring max heat index values in the afternoons to around
the 105 mark on Friday and between 105-110 on Saturday.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of the midstate
on Friday and likely all of the area for Saturday. By Saturday
night into Sunday, another cold front will sink southward from the
Midwest and bring slightly cooler temperatures as well as another
round of scattered showers and storms. Coverage of this round of
rain doesn`t appear as widespread as Wednesday, so only chance
pops are currently warranted. After that, forecast is basically
rinse and repeat with a return to highs in the upper 90s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions at TAF time. CKV could be affected by SH/TS in the
next couple of hours, but current thinking is storms in KY will
wane. Two periods of storms may affect all mid-state terminals
tomorrow afternoon/evening, however timing is suspect and will
cover with VCTS for this low confidence. MVFR cigs may come with
second round of storms, then IFR cigs through Thursday morning.

Winds will relatively light from the southeast early in the
period, then shift to the west tomorrow afternoon before fropa
after 02Z/Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  72  90  70 /  60  60  20   0
Clarksville    89  69  88  66 /  70  50  10   0
Crossville     91  65  84  64 /  60  70  40   0
Columbia       95  70  90  68 /  60  60  20   0
Cookeville     92  68  85  66 /  60  70  20   0
Jamestown      91  66  83  64 /  60  70  30   0
Lawrenceburg   94  69  88  68 /  60  60  20   0
Murfreesboro   96  70  90  69 /  60  60  20   0
Waverly        91  68  88  67 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Unger