Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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618 FXUS64 KOHX 270659 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 159 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Latest regional radar mosiac imagery showing most convection has pushed east of mid state region. Surface cold front will push through mid state region as these early morning hours progress. Enough post frontal moisture will be around today across mainly southern and eastern areas to support a continued chance of showers and thunderstorm through afternoon hours today. With surface high pressure influences moving out of upper Midwest into Great Lakes Region today providing a northerly wind component, less humid conditions will certainly prevail with highs around or maybe even a degree or two below seasonal normals. After some patchy fog southern and eastern areas tonight as a decreasing cloudiness trend continues, with lows around seasonal normal values, highs once again will be seasonally warm on Friday. Highs will range from upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. After dry conditions prevail tonight through Friday morning, as a more zonal upper level flow pattern replaces upper level ridging influences that build across our area as today progresses and into tonight, a weak embedded shortwave will move across mid state region Friday afternoon resulting in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms being possible mainly across southern and eastern locations during these Friday afternoon hours. With now a more southerly flow pattern developing as surface high pressure influences to our north shift into New England Region, some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region may experience heat index values up to around 105 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Look for shower and thunderstorm chances to once again really pick up especially across central and eastern locations by Saturday afternoon as a vast warm sector develops across much of southern CONUS in relationship to a synoptical frontal system draped to the north. A quasi southwesterly flow pattern aloft develops as Saturday progresses also, with a stronger embedded shortwave passage expected across mid state region as Saturday afternoon progresses. Still looks like multiple locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region will be within heat advisory thresholds, with heat index values as high as around 110 degrees across portions of TN River Valley Region as the heat really turns back on with highs on Saturday ranging in the mid 90s, mid 80s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region to lower 90s for locations just west of this area. Another surface cold front will try to push through mid state region as Saturday Night into Sunday progresses aided by a 1024mb surface high pressure apex across Upper Midwest. Look for upper level flow to developing ridging characteristics, but enough low level moisture will continue to work under it so this will be a quite "Dirty Ridge Pattern" across our area on Sunday with slightly cooler temperatures with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. Those upper level ridging influences will strengthen enough across mid state region as first part of next work week progresses to call a "strike three and your out" on any significant lower level atmospheric moisture pooling potential. However, July will come in like a "Roaring Lion" as it comes to seasonally warm temperatures, with highs back in the mid to even upper 90s on Tuesday, and when low level atmospheric moisture finally seeks in under these upper level ridging influences, even though isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm chances will return, so will the oppressive humidity, with heat index values west of Cumberland Plateau Region well established once again within heat advisory thresholds with values approaching TN River Valley Region once again around 110 degrees as at least another day of high temperatures west of Cumberland Plateau Region in mid to upper 90s, with upper 80s to lower 90s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 TAFs are going to be sloppy for several more hours as we deal with the backside of this current system. On the whole, look for IFR cigs for several more hours with improvement to MVFR as we near daybreak for CKV/BNA/MQY. VFR should return to all mid-state terminals before 16Z/Fri. Winds will be light and mostly north to northeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 89 70 92 76 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 66 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 82 64 86 69 / 40 0 30 20 Columbia 88 68 91 73 / 30 0 20 0 Cookeville 84 66 88 72 / 30 0 20 10 Jamestown 83 64 88 71 / 20 0 30 10 Lawrenceburg 86 68 90 72 / 40 10 20 10 Murfreesboro 89 69 92 74 / 30 0 20 10 Waverly 87 67 91 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Unger