926
FXUS64 KOHX 240659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With some locations receiving rainfall yesterday and now
clearing skies as these early morning hours have progressed,
patchy fog formation development noted at a few reporting
locations presently and would not be surprised to see some
patchy dense fog develop as remainder of early morning hours
unfold.

Dry conditions will prevail across mid state region through
Tuesday afternoon. Surface cold front will continue moving
southward into deep south as today progresses, with surface high
pressure influences building in from north with upper level flow
becoming increasingly northwesterly orientated. Highs today will
range from low to mid 90s for locations generally around and west
of I-65 Corridor Region to mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region to
upper 80s/lower 90s east of I-65 Corridor Region. With surface
high pressure influences northerly based, expect rather low
afternoon relative humidity values, dewpoints spanning the 60s,
and thus heat index values will be close to actual temperature
values. Upper level ridging influences will strengthen and become
main weather player tonight through Tuesday. Lows tonight will
generally range mid to upper 60s, upper 50s to lower 60s
Cumberland Plateau Region. With surface high pressure influences
shifting more easterly, allowing more of a southerly low level
flow pattern to become established, highs on Tuesday will be
approaching up to 10 degrees above normal in some locations,
ranging mid to upper 90s, upper 80s to lower 90s for locations
across and just west of Cumberland Plateau Region. Locations
around and west of I-65 Corridor Region could experience afternoon
heat index values 100 to around 105 degrees, especially for
locations approaching the TN River Valley Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances return to mid state region after
midnight Tuesday night lasting across eastern portions of our
area through Thursday afternoon, with best chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon of which some thunderstorms
could at least reach strong thresholds. Change in weather pattern
due to upper level troughing influences as Tuesday night into
Wednesday progresses. Muggy overnight conditions will be
experienced Tuesday with highs on Wednesday generally in low to
mid 90s. Slightly cooler lows ranging in mid to upper 60s will
be experienced on Wednesday night with passage of another quick
moving surface cold front, with coolest day of forecast period
being experienced on Thursday per influences of Great Lakes Based
surface high pressure and quasi upper level ridging influences
building in, resulting in highs ranging upper 80s to lower 90s,
mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Another dry period will persist
Thursday Night through Friday Night across our area with warming
conditions once again commencing. Mid state region will be under
what is called a "Dirty Upper Level Ridging Pattern" as weekend
into next Monday progresses with enough moisture working under
upper level ridging pattern to support isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms with seasonally warm conditions
continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Surface boundary has more or less cleared Middle Tennessee, with
no active weather remaining that could impact any of the
terminals. We do have excellent radiation cooling conditions
setting up, with a wet ground to add to the mix, so we will be
monitoring for fog and low stratus during the overnight hours.
Once the fog dissipates early Monday, expect VFR wx and light/calm
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  70  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    92  69  96  73 /   0   0  10  20
Crossville     84  59  90  67 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       94  67  98  72 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     85  64  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      84  61  90  68 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   92  66  96  71 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   92  66  97  71 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        92  69  97  73 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Rose