Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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656 FXUS64 KOHX 240545 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1245 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 816 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 There`s just a couple showers remaining in the area after an afternoon of scattered showers and storms. While there were plenty that did not get any much needed rain, MRMS does show some swaths of 0.5"+. The heaviest amounts fell along the TN/KY border where a few lucky folks got over an inch. A couple showers will be possible overnight especially as we get closer to dawn. Coverage will increase on Tuesday as instability increases. A couple severe storms look possible in the afternoon with 35-45 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1000-2000 J/kg of mlCAPE. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. Overall the forecast is on track and no major changes were made with the update. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 We expect a little more coverage of showers and storms this afternoon than yesterday thanks to falling heights, stronger shear, and perhaps some weak mid level impulses. A storm or 2 may become briefly severe with gusty winds, but mid level lapse rates are still unimpressive. Generally greater coverage of showers and storms is expected north of I-40 with very low coverage down toward the Alabama border. A few showers or storms will linger tonight as deep southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching trough. On Tuesday, coverage will ramp up more as a surface front pushes into the area. A few afternoon storms could be briefly severe with gusty winds. SPC has our area under a marginal risk (1 out of 5). The additional clouds and rain coverage will knock highs down a few degrees for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The extended forecast continues to look unsettled with daily rain chances. The front arriving Tuesday will stall out midweek as a couple of big systems start to come into play. The first will be a developing upper level low pressure system over Arkansas and the other will be a likely tropical system coming up from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The tropical system is currently in the strengthening stages and is expected to become strong Hurricane Helene before moving onshore along the Florida Gulf Coast. The storm will then gradually weaken as it gets lifted northward between the upper level low over Arkansas and an upper ridge over the Atlantic. The tropical low and mid latitude low are expected to merge over the region this weekend keeping rain chances going throughout the forecast period. The highest probabilities for soaking rain in our area are shown Thursday into Friday as the biggest slug of tropical moisture lifts across the area. Our latest rainfall forecast shows generally 2 to 4 inches of rain by Saturday with the higher totals over the Plateau. Obviously there is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast involving a tropical systems, so we could end up with lower or perhaps higher totals. Localized flooding could be a concern Thursday into Friday. Also, gusty winds and localized severe storms cannot be ruled out, but there is far too much uncertainty at this time to say what that risk level will be. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The 06Z TAFs are starting off VFR, but there is the possibility of some radiation fog at our eastern terminals (CSV, SRB) overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough has set up west of Mississippi Valley, and a surface low pressure system is now developing near STL that is providing the focus for some ongoing convection in that proximity. The HRRR does show at least some scattered cells developing across Middle Tennessee toward morning, with more widespread convection expected this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 86 67 79 65 / 70 40 50 50 Clarksville 82 62 78 61 / 70 20 30 40 Crossville 83 61 74 59 / 70 80 80 70 Columbia 86 64 78 61 / 70 40 60 50 Cookeville 83 63 75 62 / 70 60 70 70 Jamestown 82 62 74 61 / 80 70 70 70 Lawrenceburg 87 64 76 61 / 70 50 60 50 Murfreesboro 87 66 78 63 / 70 50 60 60 Waverly 82 62 77 60 / 60 20 30 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Reagan SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Rose