Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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254 FXUS64 KOHX 220557 AAC AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The earlier convection has diminished. Temps have cooled into the 70s at most locations. Dewpoint spreads are in the 4-8F range with partial cloudiness in place. For the rest of tonight will likely see some patchy fog development late. The low temperature forecast of 65F-70F still looks good. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s. But with the center of this high well to our south and an embedded shortwave rounding the periphery of the high, isolated showers are possible through this afternoon and then again on Sunday, especially near the TN/KY border. Any showers will be hit-and- miss, and with our dry atmosphere, any rainfall will be light and less than a tenth of an inch. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The high to our south gets suppressed starting Monday as a trough tracks through the Plains. This will increase our rain chances Monday, but best rain chances of the week so far look to be on Tuesday as a weak cold front tracks through the area. But before you get excited, rain amounts are still underwhelming and generally less than a quarter of an inch through Tuesday. But good news is that temperatures will fall behind the front and feel more seasonable with highs falling in the upper-70s to mid-80s. Models diverge significantly Wednesday and beyond, and confidence is very low regarding the forecast from here. Model solutions are generally in two different camps. The deterministic GFS as well as its ensemble members show a deep trough extending from the Great Lakes region. But the ENS and GEPS ensemble members are favoring more of a ridging pattern. The GFS`s solution favors a wetter pattern while the other favors a drier pattern. Unfortunately, the drier pattern looks to be more likely at this point with about 60% of ensemble members favoring the ridging. But have continued the low precipitation chances (15 to 25 percent) Wednesday and beyond to account for this uncertainty. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR Conditions expected for the next few hours before some possible MVFR (and maybe even IFR) fog develops. Uncertainty continues with the extent and area of this developing fog, but think the best chances are across areas which experienced rain Saturday afternoon as well as KCSV and KSRB. VFR returns after 12Z with the main concern being the timing and coverage of any TSRA/VCTS this afternoon. Too uncertain to pinpoint specific time/location, so carried VCTS for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 93 71 90 70 / 30 20 40 30 Clarksville 90 69 87 67 / 30 30 50 60 Crossville 87 64 85 63 / 30 10 60 20 Columbia 92 68 91 68 / 20 10 30 20 Cookeville 88 66 86 66 / 30 10 50 30 Jamestown 87 65 84 64 / 30 20 60 30 Lawrenceburg 91 67 90 68 / 20 10 30 20 Murfreesboro 93 69 92 69 / 30 10 40 20 Waverly 90 69 89 67 / 20 20 40 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......21 SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Hurley