Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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437 FXUS64 KOHX 140510 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1210 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 837 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, sky condition, and wind speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously forecasted late evening gridded values. Current regional temperature trends continue to support forecasted overnight low temperature values. Although a little more PW than this time yesterday noted in KOHX 14/00Z Sounding, around seasonal normal values now, and an increase in derived atmospheric indicies values also noted, current surface riding influences along with building upper level riding influences from our southwest, will continue to keep "A Cap on Things" with minimal cloudiness and no convection/rainfall expected through remainder of tonight. Some patchy fog continues to be possible mainly near bodies of water as remainder of nighttime hours progress. Otherwise, current forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 We have a pretty decent day going on across Middle TN right now. Temps have climbed into the 80s for almost everyone and without a southerly boundary layer flow, some mixing is occuring. This is helping to drop dew points in a few spots and relaxing RH values. Take advantage. This isn`t going to be the case moving forward into the weekend. In the short term, look for some fog development tonight, especially near bodies of water. I don`t think we`re going to need a dense fog advisory, but just know visibilities could drop off quickly near lakes and rivers during your morning commute tomorrow. After any fog dissipates, we`re looking another decent day with afternoon highs in the low 90s, like today. Models continue to push an unseasonal front through the region during the day tomorrow, but it still looks to wash out before it can cause any rain chances here across the mid- state. The most likely result from the frontal passage is afternoon highs a degree or two cooler Saturday than we`ll see today or tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 By the end of the weekend, upper level ridging will re-assert itself across the eastern half of the US. This is going spike afternoon highs here in Middle TN. Chances of reaching triple digit air temperatures aren`t looking great, but highs in the upper 90s coupled with dew points in the upper 60s is likely going to push a few areas in triple digit Heat Index values on Sunday. With the ridge in place, I think rain chances will be very, very small Sunday, but as the ridge pushes east on Monday, we could see enough height falls to create a chance of isolated to scattered afternoon storms. If this occurs, these will fall into the typical summertime thunderstorm category -- heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible. Beyond Monday, rain chances fall off once again, but afternoon temperatures look to remain in the low 90s as summer heat starts to take hold across the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out tonight mainly near water ways. MVFR/IFR possible in any fog. Light winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 95 71 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 91 68 91 65 / 10 0 0 0 Crossville 87 64 85 63 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 94 69 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 88 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 87 64 85 62 / 10 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 93 69 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 95 69 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 91 69 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Mueller