987
FXUS64 KOHX 141608
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1108 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Yep. The remnants of Francine are still here. Her weakening upper
low sits just off to our southwest and it continues to pull plenty
of moisture into the area. Showers have been ongoing across our
southwest counties since early this morning and have dropped quite a
bit of rain. While we`ve only had reports of minor flooding, storm
totals nearing 8 inches have been recorded in southern Lawrenceburg
county. Light to moderate rain will continue for them and
surrounding communities for several more hours but I think their
rain rates should stay in check and not cause any further issues.
We`ll allow their Flood Watch to continue through 00Z. In addition
to that rain, areas along and east of I-24 have seen lots of sun
this morning. Because of that, instability growth is expected into
the afternoon and early evening hours. NBM doesn`t agree, but most
of the CAMs are suggesting late afternoon/early afternoon storm
development along and north of I-40. For these reasons, I`ve
increased PoP chances for this area through 03Z this evening. Rain
rates should be decent and there`s even a chance for a rumble of
thunder, but no severe and no flooding is expected.

I wanted to completely remove PoPs for tomorrow, but I don`t know if
I can just yet. Maybe the midnight shift can. Models are trending
drier and drier. An isolated storm is possible tomorrow afternoon at
this point. Thunder would be possible during the heat of the
afternoon, but no severe is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

By Monday, we should be done with Francine. Finally. Yes, she ended
up being a bummer for most of Middle TN, but those that got the rain
definitely needed it. Here`s the stinky part: those who didn`t? The
crunchy grass is just gonna get worse. I don`t have PoPs in the
forecast through the rest of the week and right now, even next
weekend`s rain chances aren`t looking great. The big story will be
this tropical/sub-tropical system off the east coast and whether or
not it will provide us any rain next weekend. In any event,
temperatures should hover around normal for this time of the year,
so we won`t be too hot or cold over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Widespread rain and MVFR cigs will continue this morning in the
southwest part of the area staying to the west of the terminals.
VFR conditions are expected for the terminals. The widespread
rain will become more scattered by the afternoon and scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible for KCKV and
Nashville terminals. Rain chances will diminish by 04z. Winds
will be easterly up to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  67  88  65 /  70  60  30  10
Clarksville    81  65  87  63 /  60  60  20  10
Crossville     81  59  83  56 /  30  20  20  10
Columbia       78  65  86  62 /  80  60  30  20
Cookeville     82  62  85  60 /  50  60  20  10
Jamestown      83  62  84  58 /  20  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   77  64  84  61 /  80  50  30  20
Murfreesboro   83  65  88  63 /  70  50  30  10
Waverly        79  65  85  63 /  90  70  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Giles-Lawrence-Wayne.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Mueller