387
FXUS64 KOHX 072344
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
644 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Dry high pressure has been moving into Middle TN today. The dry
air and full sunshine has allowed deep vertical mixing, giving us
pleasant humidity levels and a nice north breeze to go along with
seasonable warmth.

We will have fantastic conditions tonight as the dry air allows
temps to drop off through the 70s and into the 60s this evening,
reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s late in the night.

We continue to look for development of an MCS up to our northwest
tonight. This batch of showers and storms will make a run at us by
Saturday morning, but most of the system will break up as it
encounters dry and stable air in place across Middle Tennessee.
Still, we could have a few brief showers or sprinkles as the
remnants of the system cross the area Saturday morning and midday.
We do not expect any thunderstorms with this activity. The main
result will be some mid level clouds and very brief light showers
that should not have much if any impact on outdoor events.
Otherwise, increasing sunshine in the afternoon will warm it up
with highs in the 80s area-wide. Humidity levels will be a little
higher Saturday, but still quite tolerable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Better rain chances will come late Saturday night into Sunday as
another batch of rain and storms comes our way from the northwest.
This batch is expected to hold together with widespread showers
and some rumbles of thunder. Surface conditions appear too stable
for any severe wx risk. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and
evening as a cold front drops into the area. By mid afternoon
Sunday, humidity levels will be higher and there will be some
pockets of instability, so a couple of strong storms with
downpours and gusty wind cannot be ruled out, but we are not
seeing a widespread severe risk.

Passage of the cold front late Sunday into Sunday night will
bring another shot of cooler and drier air, but there will remain
a lingering risk for a few showers or storms Monday as the
boundary moves southward across the region.

The trend for next week will be a pleasantly cool and drier start
to the week with warming temperatures and increasing humidity
throughout the week. Some scattered showers or storms cannot be
ruled out at times, but at this point, models are deflecting the
bulk of next week`s disturbances and rain chances away from our
area. By next weekend, temps and humidity levels will creep up
into "hot and humid" territory with heat index values possible
approaching 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions anticipated at all TAF sites throughout the
forecast period. High clouds should move in around sunrise
tomorrow, but will not impact ceilings. Can`t rule out a shower at
CKV, BNA, and MQY but chances are still too low to include even a
VCSH in the TAF. Light winds will prevail once west winds subside
at sunset. Generally south winds expected tomorrow yet still quite
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  88  70  85 /   0  20  60  60
Clarksville    61  86  69  81 /  10  20  60  60
Crossville     55  80  63  77 /   0  20  70  80
Columbia       59  87  68  86 /   0  20  60  50
Cookeville     58  81  65  78 /   0  20  70  70
Jamestown      56  80  64  75 /   0  20  80  80
Lawrenceburg   59  86  67  86 /   0  20  50  50
Murfreesboro   58  87  67  85 /   0  20  60  60
Waverly        61  86  68  83 /   0  20  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Husted