425
FXUS64 KOHX 021656
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1156 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Started off today much cooler than we`ve been experiencing lately.
Unfortunately, the uncomfortable heat and high humidity will be
making a return later today, and will be sticking with us through
Friday. An upper level ridge has already started building in over
the southeast and return flow will bring ample moisture back into in
the area. The warmer air temps combined with the higher dew point
temps will send heat index values into the 105+ range Wednesday.
With that, a heat advisory will be in effect during the day
tomorrow from 1pm-7pm. A wave passing to our north will bring the
chance for a few scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
Models show instability values reaching into the 1500 J/kg range,
so a few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. PWAT
values will be near 2", so very heavy rain will be likely with
any thunderstorms that develop. As we`ve recently seen, some
localized flash flooding could occur under these storms. On the
plus side, mid-level lapse rates are quite low with values near
5.5 C/km. Shear is also on the lower side with values near 15 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

As we move into the 4th of July, the intense heat and high humidity
will once again likely warrant another heat advisory. Lower heights
resulting from a strong upper-level low over the midwest will scoot
over Tennessee during the day Thursday, bringing an increased and
more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoon. This could help keep temperatures a bit cooler for
some, thus we`re holding off on issuing any heat products for now.
SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the majority of the area
Thursday. Instability looks greater and there will be better
forcing with the shortwave passing aloft over our north, so a few
strong to potentially severe storms will again be possible. Models
continue to show coverage greatly decreasing by Thursday night,
so hopefully that continues to be the trend as not to be a damper
on any Independence Day plans.

As we get into Friday, it`s likely going to be a rainy and overcast
day for the most part as a cold front pushes through the area. I use
the term cold front loosely as temperatures will remain near or at
90 degrees this weekend. We will have a brief drying out period
Saturday afternoon through Sunday before rain chances return Monday
and Tuesday. The upper-air pattern to start the week features a
trough moving in from the Great Plains that will keep rain chances
in the forecast each day to start the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Clear skies and calm winds this morning at all sites. Winds will
gradually increase to around 10 knots out of the south later this
morning and remain that way for much of the period. Scattered cu
are expected to develop this afternoon, but conditions will
remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  77  97  78 /   0   0  20  40
Clarksville    93  75  95  76 /   0   0  20  60
Crossville     87  67  89  70 /   0   0  10  40
Columbia       95  75  97  76 /   0   0  20  30
Cookeville     88  71  91  74 /   0   0  10  40
Jamestown      88  70  91  72 /   0   0  10  50
Lawrenceburg   93  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  30
Murfreesboro   94  75  98  77 /   0   0  20  40
Waverly        94  75  96  76 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Whitehead