Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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556 FXUS64 KOHX 260701 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 201 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 An area of showers and thunderstorms is slowly moving out of central MS River Valley Region as these early morning hours have progressed and should begin to move into northwestern portions of our area here shortly. Recent CAMs not doing a great job of initializing this, as CAMs continue to show, along with North American. and Global Models differences in general movement and timing through at least remaining morning hours today. Better agreement in weather pattern evolution noted between these three model tiers as afternoon hours progress with a more pronounced upper level trough passage expected. Depending on what model tier and particular model you prefer, some forecast model soundings and derived indicies show just regular summertime showers and thunderstorms while others, like the NAMNest show at least potential of a few strong to severe thunderstorms with PW values approaching 1.9 inches, respectable CAPE values for robust convective development 1,500 J/KG, mid level lapse rates in 6-7 C/km range, Total Total Values at least approaching 50, DCAPE values around 1,100 J/KG, but atmospheric shear values only in 20-30 m2/s2 range. So if any strong to severe thunderstorms due occur, strong to damaging microburst winds and brief heavy rainfall. Latest Day 1 SPC convective outlook continues to keep mid state within a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon into early evening hours tonight eastern portions. Temperatures this afternoon will not be as hot as those experienced yesterday, with upper 80s northwest to mid 90s south. With increased low level moisture, some locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region that are expected to reach into low to mid 90s, could also experience heat index values up to around 105 degrees. Look for best coverage of showers and thunderstorms to shift across eastern portions of our area through evening hours tonight with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible after midnight tonight entire area and across southern and eastern portions of our area as Thursday progresses as upper level troughing shifts eastward tonight and upper level ridging influences slowly build in on Thursday with some lingering moisture possibly across southern and eastern areas dependent on actual cold frontal passage movement. Surface front should move slowly through our area as tonight progresses bringing, after lows tonight mainly upper 60s to lower 70s, more seasonal normal temperatures across our area on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Upper level ridging influences on Thursday night will give way to a more zonal pattern aloft on Friday which might usher a few weak upper level disturbances within its flow across our area resulting in potentially isolated showers and thunderstorms southern and eastern portions. With surface high pressure influences shifting eastward, a warming trend will commence, with a good amount of locations potentially west of Cumberland PLateu Region having afternoon heat index values up to around 105 degrees as highs will generally once again be in low to mid 90s. Best day for potential of a heat advisory for locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region continues to be on Saturday with prevalent mid to upper 90s highs and heat index values well within the 105 up to around 110 degree range for locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region as shower and thunderstorm chances return to our area with best potential on Sunday afternoon as upper level troughing influences move across our area. Another cold frontal passage will result in once more seasonal temperatures by next Monday. Upper level ridging influences will once again build in from the west as Monday into Tuesday progress with highs back in low to mid 90s by Tuesday afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible with heat index values west of Cumberland Plateau Region back in the 100 to 105 degree range. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions at TAF time. CKV could be affected by SH/TS in the next couple of hours, but current thinking is storms in KY will wane. Two periods of storms may affect all mid-state terminals tomorrow afternoon/evening, however timing is suspect and will cover with VCTS for this low confidence. MVFR cigs may come with second round of storms, then IFR cigs through Thursday morning. Winds will relatively light from the southeast early in the period, then shift to the west tomorrow afternoon before fropa after 02Z/Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 72 90 70 / 60 60 20 0 Clarksville 88 69 88 66 / 70 50 10 0 Crossville 91 65 84 64 / 60 70 40 0 Columbia 95 70 90 68 / 60 60 20 0 Cookeville 91 68 85 66 / 60 70 20 0 Jamestown 91 66 83 64 / 60 70 30 0 Lawrenceburg 94 69 88 68 / 60 60 20 0 Murfreesboro 96 70 90 69 / 60 60 20 0 Waverly 90 68 88 67 / 70 50 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Unger